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Hey everyone,
This edition only scratches the surface of what we’re seeing in the lease space right now.
Have a thought you want to add? A tactic that’s working? A strategy that’s helping your team navigate customers deciding whether to return or buy?
We’d love to hear what you’re seeing. Connect with us here.
— CDG
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90%: Return rate on Nissan Rogue AWD leases in July, the highest of any model tracked.
80-92%: Buyout rate on Ford Escape, Ford Explorer, and Chevy Equinox leases that same month, opposite the Rogue.
$7K-$10K: How far off current market value some lease buyouts are running on models like the Jeep 4xe and Grand Cherokee, per one dealer.
(Source: Edgar Auto Lease Level / Black Book / Fitch Ratings / Dealer interviews)
July's lease termination numbers come with a few different, overlapping explanations.
In July, about 90% of Nissan Rogue AWD leases ended with the customer handing the car back rather than buying it, the highest rate of any model tracked.
By comparison: The Ford Escape, Ford Explorer, and Chevy Equinox went the other way, with 80% to 92% of those customers paying off the lease and keeping the car.
Custom CDG analysis
We asked dealers what's behind numbers like these, and more than one explanation came up.
Mike McVeigh, with the Jeff D’Ambrosio Auto Group, pointed out that Rogue leases ran as low as $229 to $299 a month a few years back, with Nissan betting the car would still be worth a decent amount by lease-end.
“That payment is a direct result of a residual that was way high 3 years ago,” he said.
Backing this, Scott Pharr, founder and dealer principal of Pharr Motor Group, said that “the folks buying out their current lease are typically doing so because they can’t get their same (or similar) payment on a new one. My belief (as a Nissan dealer) is that the Rogue lease is so strong that a customer CAN accomplish that goal in a new vehicle AND we can do it while making a profit.”
Beyond price: Dave Thomas, director of content marketing at CDK Global, told CDG News via email that model-year (MY) turnover and new model introductions are also likely at play here.
Dave Thomas
His guesses…
“The ‘easy ones’ would be the Ford Edge and Escape. Owners who loved their lease vehicles would have no new ones to swap into as they’ve been discontinued. Similarly, I’d imagine the VW Tiguan and Audi Q5 leasees want the new redesigns of those two cars and would lease again.”
“The all-new Atlas will be on lots soon, so my guess is those owners are looking for something new and don’t want to get into the leftover Atlas [inventory] available to them until the new one arrives.”
“That leaves the Equinox [and] Explorer as odd ducks in my honest opinion. My guess is the lease deals three years ago on those two were exceptional and the buyout terms are favorable compared to the price of new models. Both are going through MY turnovers now, but July should have had plenty of 2026s on hand. There are 4X 2027 Equinox on dealer websites right now compared to new 2026 models. There are 2X+ more 2026 Explorers on lots vs. 2027. With not huge updates to be had for moving up, and if the buyout is favorable, the right financial move might be to buy out the lease.”
NOTE TO DEALERS:
Even with multiple factors driving owners to return or buy out their lease right now, what matters more is that lease volume in 2026 is running higher than it has in years.
What we mean: In past years, with fewer leases ending, it was easier to handle these on a case-by-case basis.
But that's not really the case anymore. No plan, no advantage.
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Different beliefs about why returns or buy-outs look the way they do lead to different approaches and strategies.
So… here are some dos and don'ts guiding dealers in their lease ops:
Do: Take the return and resell into something new if your OEM reprices quickly.
Pharr said Nissan resets what he can pay for a returned lease within about a day, so he buys back nearly every Rogue return and puts that customer into a new vehicle instead of letting them buy out the old one.
“I think some OEMs and dealers may be taking path of least resistance and allowing the buyout rather than committing to the new car game. Not sure that either path is better than the other, but I know for me as a Nissan Dealer the new car game is a way to WIN!”
Scott Pharr
Do: Be the expert so shoppers trust what you're selling and why.
McVeigh said he'll tell a client when a buyout doesn't make financial sense and steer them toward a better option instead, even if it costs him the deal in the short term.
“Every brand has one or two cars we pump out on the leases, and with residuals set in 2023 or 2024, they simply are ludacris amounts when it comes to payoffs.”
Mike McVeigh
He added: “Rogue is one I have seen, which this chart shows. I can also admit that anything 4XE’s across the board, as well as most Grand Cherokees, are $7-$10k off the $ and we don’t need to put our clients in a negative situation.”
Don’t: Let a bad buyout become your finance team's problem.
Use this example from McVeigh…
“2023 4XE Wrangler Sahara. Customer residual/buyout on contract is $39,700. MMR is $23,900. NADA left side is $25,800. Best banks on the planet for those with the best credit are 120% loan-to-value. $39,700 plus tax and tags is $42,834 tax, tags, title. Best banks will let you borrow $30,900 on an auto loan. Oh, and Stellantis is giving people $2,500-$12,000 off them. Still can’t get there on most higher trims.”
His point: “It’s another hurdle I'd rather not have my finance guys tackling day in and day out.”
Every brand has its own version of the Rogue. Priced low three years ago, leases ending now, and consumers stuck deciding what to do next.
The pitch has always been that leasing takes the stress out of ownership. To actually deliver on that, ask yourself two things:
What's your end goal when a customer walks in facing a buyout that doesn't add up, and where is your finance team's time best spent? Answer those, and you've basically got your lease strategy.
