The industry will finish 2025 with its best sales year in six years, but Q4 is already showing cracks. December's sales are expected to drop 3.5% year-over-year, and Cox Automotive predicts a 2.4% decline in 2026.
The details: Weak sales for Q4 will be offset by prior months, making 2025 the best sales year for new vehicles since 2019, with total sales of 16.3 million, based on Cox's forecast.
December's seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales (SAAR) is expected to finish near 15.9 million, down from last year's 16.8 million but up from November's 15.6 million level.
Sales volume in December is expected to fall 3.5% from last December but rise by 12.7% from November.
What they're saying: "Despite challenges, 2025 has been a good year for new-vehicle sales," said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, per a press release. "The fourth quarter is showing the expected slowdown, as headwinds from tariffs, inflation and reduced EV incentives weigh on the market after nine surprisingly strong months. Still, consumer demand has kept the new-vehicle market healthy throughout 2025."
Looking ahead to 2026: Cox forecasts a new-vehicle SAAR of 15.8 million, driven by slower economic growth, weaker job creation, and the expiration of EV tax incentives.
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Between the lines: General Motors $GM ( ▼ 0.06% ) is expected to end the year as the top-selling automaker in the U.S. for the fourth consecutive year—followed by Toyota Motor Corp., Ford $F ( ▼ 0.71% ) Motor Co., and Hyundai Motor Co., as the top automakers widen the sales-volume gap.
GM is projected to finish 2025 with full-year sales of 2,826,438 units sold, posting a total market share of 17.3%, up from 16.8% in 2024.
Toyota's sales are expected to increase 8.4% from last year, with market share rising from 14.5% to 15.5% and full-year sales of 2,524,412 units sold.
Ford's full-year sales are projected to increase 5.6% to 2,180,574 units, accounting for 13.4% of total market share compared to 12.9% last year.
Hyundai is expected to close out 2025 with its full-year sales rising 7.9% compared to last year, with its total market share ticking up to 11.3% vs. 10.7% last year.
Combined, the market share for GM, Toyota, Ford, and Hyundai increased 2.6 points in 2025, while nearly all other automakers saw declines in both sales and share, according to Cox.
Zooming out: 2025 is closing out as a solid volume year, but Q4 softness and the 2026 forecast are reminders that demand is no longer on autopilot. As tariffs, inflation, and weaker EV incentives bite harder, stores will need to rely more on smart inventory mix, targeted incentives, and strong F&I structuring to keep turns and grosses healthy as the market normalizes.
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