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Hey everyone,
Every morning we drop a data point on our socials with our take on what it could mean for the market. This morning’s was on lease buyouts, and yesterday’s was on independent car shopper habits.
Worth keeping track of if you aren’t.
— CDG
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Welcome to the Market Pulse—your cheatsheet to auto retail, built to help dealers price right, stock smart, and stay ahead.
Stellantis is posting the biggest OEM turnaround of 2026 so far: New-vehicle sales are up 4.8% YoY, while other OEMs’ sales are down (in part) due to product cycles.
Mid-size cars and SUVs are growing at roughly 4x the overall market rate: Full-size trucks are the only segment losing ground.
Daily Dealer Live guests are turning inventory and pricing pressure into their competitive edge: This includes volume-first strategies to walking away from OEM allocation when it stops making sense.
(Source: Cox Automotive / Daily Dealer Live / Custom CDG Analysis)
The OEM pecking order is shifting in 2026 as product cycles, not the overall market, decide who's coming out on top.
Looking at the first half of 2026 for new-vehicle sales, there’s a pretty clear split in OEM performance.
By the numbers: Stellantis led the pack at +4.8% year-over-year, with Hyundai, BMW, and Honda also posting solid gains.
Tesla, Ford, and GM took the other side of that trade, down 14.6%, 10.3%, and 7.2%, respectively.
The main reason: Product cycles.
Stellantis is riding a return to gas-powered trucks and SUVs while brands like Toyota and Honda are leaning on redesigned models and strong hybrid lineups to close the gap on GM.
NOTE TO DEALERS:
When product cycles decide what moves, you need a clear inventory strategy, what to push, what to cut losses on, and when.
The OEM ultimately chose what to build, so if your lot is leaning toward the brands losing ground right now, the real conversation starts with them.
More on that toward the end…
Mid-size cars are growing at 4x the rate of the overall new-vehicle market, while full-size trucks are the only segment losing ground.
On the topic of product, mid-size vehicles are where the real growth seems to be.
What we’re seeing: Mid-size cars are up 17.5% year-over-year and mid-size SUVs are up 14.8%, both blowing past the 4.2% overall market average.
Compact cars are also outperforming at 9.6%.
And full-size pickups are the one segment moving the wrong way, down 1.4%.
Cox Automotive points to affordability as the main driver here, not a sudden love of mid-size.
WHY IT MATTERS:
Buyers priced out of premium segments are trading down, while buyers priced out of the cheapest segments are skipping new altogether and heading to used.
Put another way: Mid-size is winning because it's the practical middle ground both groups are landing on.
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In the back half of the year, it's safe to say OEM and product performance will keep splitting the same way it has all year, with some brands and segments winning, and others stuck holding inventory nobody wants.
At the dealer level, though, our guests on Daily Dealer Live tell us the ball is in the dealership's court, whether it seems like it is or not.
Here are some of their Dos and Don'ts for navigating what's actually in your control:
Do: Treat volume as the strategy, not the byproduct.
Sam Hatch, General Manager at JRR Motor Sales, said what his store isn't doing is holding out for fat margins on every unit. Instead, he's built his whole model around turning cars, even at a loss, because he says the alternative costs more.
"We're not married to any vehicles. That's why we push the volume that we do. If we're making a dollar or maybe even losing in some situations, we're going to sell the car 100 times out of 100. Volume solves every issue any dealership is facing in my opinion."
Sam Hatch GM at JRR Motor Sales
Do: Price transparently and let the customer skip the negotiation.
Jameson Riley, General Manager at Riley Volvo Cars Stamford, told the audience on DDL that he actually borrowed his new-car pricing approach from Costco's flat, transparent margin model.
"I kind of thought, why not just kind of tell people where we're at, let consumers know essentially how much we're making on the car and put it at what I perceive to be a comfortable level. We tested it. Consumers responded really well to it. We were number three for new-car sales in the country for Volvo in April and number five in May."
Jameson Riley GM at Riley Volvo Cars
As he sees it, it's a low-cost test for any store. Just drop the back-and-forth, show the math, and let the deal close itself.
Don’t: Keep accepting OEM inventory just because they want it moved.
Riley shared that he also hit a breaking point on new-vehicle floor plan costs earlier this year and stopped accepting cars from the manufacturer entirely, even though it strained the relationship.
His reasoning: "It got to a point where the floor plan cost was so exorbitant that it just didn't make sense anymore to continue to move with that same pricing strategy to the customer... we ended up taking basically a 3-month hiatus from taking any cars from the manufacturer, which was really tough."
He said other Volvo dealers independently made the same call, and the volume of pushback was enough to force the OEM to respond with new offers and pricing changes within months.
OEM and dealer relations are tough. Probably tougher than they need to be.
But while the brand doesn't always make it easy for dealers to move the inventory they're handed, there have never been more resources (AI tools, equity mining platforms, pricing models) to still move metal and meet the needs of customers in your market.
It just takes a willingness to test something new and push back for the sake of your shoppers (and shop) when needed.
The invisible problem: Why dealers are losing leads (and where they’re going)
"Defection intelligence gives dealers a way to zero in on areas for improvement and coach their teams using real outcomes. The market is tighter and available opportunity is down. Dealers who know where they're losing and why are the ones positioned to close more of the leads they already have,” DeMont said.
The latest updates to the CDG Buy/Sell Tracker.
