Toyota projects $1.3B tariff shakeup for April and May alone

Toyota just dropped its 2025 financial results—and unlike some rivals, it’s not dodging tariff guidance.

The details: In an earnings report released yesterday, Toyota said it expects operating income to fall 21% year-over-year to $26 billion (3.8 trillion yen) for the fiscal year ending March 2026.

• That’s including a loose estimate that U.S. tariffs will hit the brand for $1.3B hit in April and May alone.

• Toyota also suspects a stronger yen and weaker U.S. dollar could drag down full-year earnings by another $5.2B, or 745 billion yen. 

• The U.S. dollar has dipped 8%+ vs major currencies as of April 25., according to the New York Times.

Translation: Less bang for every U.S. buck brought back to Japan.

And that’s a problem because the U.S. is Toyota’s retail powerhouse. Toyota Motor North America reported over half a million vehicle sales in Q1 alone.

• And in North America overall, vehicle sales closed out at 2.7 million units in fiscal ‘25, which ended March 31, 2025.

• By comparison, sales totaled about 2 million in Japan, 1.8 units in Asia, and 1.2 million units in Europe, according to yesterday’s release.

• Meanwhile, 1.7 million units were sold across Central and South America, Oceania, Africa, and the Middle East.

But that could quickly change…

Basically: It’s a guessing game. This is why Ford pulled its 2025 guidance on Monday, even though it outperformed Wall Street’s Q1 estimates.

• It’s also why Stellantis and Mercedes-Benz scrapped their full-year financial guidance earlier this month. 

• Volkswagen, as we’ve covered, also shared guidance—but didn’t mention tariffs, which UBS’s Patrick Hummel assumed was “essentially a withdrawal of guidance.”

Bottom line: Toyota might be putting numbers on the board while others step back. But with that $1.3B tariff hit only covering 60 days, the next few quarters could bring a lot more pain for automakers and consumers alike.

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