Ford pulls 2025 guidance, expects $1.5B tariff hit this year

Apparently, Ford $F ( ▲ 2.63% ) CEO Jim Farley wasn’t quite as confident about the company’s positioning with the tariffs as he tried to appear to be last week when he indicated the automaker was holding off on raising vehicle prices. 

The details: After seeming fairly confident about Ford’s ability to successfully steer through the headwinds of the levies last Wednesday, the company pulled its 2025 guidance Monday—even though it beat Wall Street’s first-quarter expectations.

• Ford said it expects a $2.5 billion impact this year due to the tariffs enacted by President Trump—offsetting $1 billion of those costs through remediation actions as well as volume and pricing expectations for a total impact of $1.5 billion. 

• The Detroit automaker noted “near-term risks, especially the potential for industrywide supply chain disruption impacting production” and the potential for future or increased tariffs in the U.S. as core reasons for suspending its guidance. 

• Ford expects the tariff impact—which it said is split between imported vehicles and automotive parts—to lower its U.S. industry sales by 15.5 million units, a drop of 500,000 units prior to the measures.

Between the lines: Ford’s initial earnings projections—minus the tariffs—spotlights exactly how the levies are impacting automakers’ operations, as detailed by CNBC.     

• Ford’s tracking for its initial guidance included adjusted earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, of $7 billion to $8.5 billion; adjusted free cash flow of $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion; and capital expenditures between $8 billion and $9 billion.

• For Q1, Ford saw a 5% decline in total revenue compared with a year earlier to $40.7 billion, adjusted EBIT results of $1.02 billion, and net income of $471 million compared to a net income of $1.33 billion in the first quarter of 2024.

• The automaker slashed its losses for its “Model e” electric vehicle business—a trouble spot for Ford amid slumping EV sales—by from $1.33 billion in Q1 2024 to $849 million during the first quarter of 2025. 

Bottom line: While Ford may still be pushing the narrative that its turnaround plan is on track, the $1.5 billion net tariff hit and its lowered vehicle sales in Q1 due to the tariffs signal rougher roads ahead for the company.

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