Total new-vehicle sales for November are expected to drop, largely due to the buyer rush to purchase before federal EV tax credits expired.
The details: According to J.D. Power, retail and non-retail transactions are projected to reach 1.26 million units this month, a 5.2% decrease year-over-year compared to November 2024.
New-vehicle retail sales for November 2025 are expected to reach 1,058,500, a 4.8% drop from the same month in 2024.
The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is projected to be 15.4 million units, down from 16.6 million last November.
What they’re saying: “November’s results reflect another notable—yet anticipated—decline in the new-vehicle sales pace, driven largely by the pull-ahead of electric vehicle (EV) purchases prior to the expiration of federal EV tax credits on Sept. 30,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at J.D. Power.
Thomas King
J.D. Power
“That expiration prompted many shoppers to accelerate buying decisions, resulting in a surge in EV sales that temporarily inflated the overall industry sales pace,” he added.
Why it matters: The slowdown reflects a timing shift from the EV pull-ahead, not a demand collapse, leaving dealers with tougher year-over-year comps and a cooler sales pace. Stores will need to lean into the right mix (ICE, hybrids, value models), tighter inventory discipline, and creative deal structures to protect volume and profitability.
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Between the lines: With the EV rush and federal incentives in the rearview, the average manufacturer incentive spend was higher than October but still lower than a year ago—as more sales shift toward internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, with trucks and SUVs driving transactions.
The average OEM incentive spend per vehicle is on track to reach $3,211, up $375 from October—but $125 lower than a year ago.
Leasing is expected to decline 2.7 percentage points from November 2024, reaching 20.5% of total sales, while leases still account for 54% of EV transactions.
ICE vehicles are projected to account for 77.5% of new retail sales, up 2.3 percentage points from a year ago—while EVs are expected to account for 6.0% of sales, down 3.6 percentage points.
Trucks and SUVs are on track to account for 82.6% of new-vehicle retail sales, up 1.0 percentage point from November 2024.
Affordability continues to weigh on new-vehicle sales, with the average new retail transaction price at $46,029, up $722 year-over-year, and the average monthly payment surging to $760—a record for November.
Bottom line: The easy lift from EV tax credits is gone, and the market is settling into a slower, more normal run rate where ICE trucks/SUVs and hybrids do the heavy lifting. Dealers are back to blocking-and-tackling—finding ways to move metal in a payment-stretched market without relying on outsized incentives or policy tailwinds.
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