Tesla just did something weird.
This week, the EV maker and tech company quietly published a public “Q4 2025 Delivery Consensus” aggregating forecasts from a roster of Wall Street firms ahead of its official earnings report.
Driving the news: A press release on the Tesla Investor Relations website, listed estimates from sell-side analysts representing Daiwa, Deutsche Bank, Wedbush, Canaccord, Baird, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Barclays, RBC and others.
The consensus puts Q4 2025 deliveries at 422,850, much lower than a Bloomberg-compiled average of 445,061.
In total, analysts expect 1.64 million deliveries for 2025, down more than 8% from 2024.
Worth noting: Tesla added the disclaimer that it “does not endorse any information, recommendations, or conclusions made by the analysts,” even as it chose to publish their numbers.
What they’re saying: “This is highly unusual for Tesla to send out a press release with quarterly consensus delivery estimates,” Gary Black, managing partner at Future Fund, wrote on X. “Again, one has to align a potential 4Q delivery shortfall with the expectation that $TSLA could announce by midnight Wednesday that they are removing some or all safety monitors from Austin robotaxis.”
Why it matters: While Tesla’s stock hit record highs this month, buoyed by enthusiasm for its planned robotaxi network, its core EV business has stumbled.
U.S. sales have slumped since the $7,500 federal tax credit expired in September, with November deliveries reportedly falling to their lowest level since 2022 despite cheaper Model 3 and Model Y trims.
Overseas, Tesla is squeezed by aggressive Chinese EV rivals offering tech‑heavy cars at rock‑bottom prices, while European sales are down around 30% so far this year.
OUTSMART THE CAR MARKET IN 5 MINUTES A WEEK
Get insights trusted by 55,000+ car dealers. Free, fast, and built for automotive leaders.
Between the lines: CEO Elon Musk’s political activity is emerging as a non‑trivial demand risk layered on top of macro and competitive pressures.
A recent Yale study by four economists, including Kenneth Gillingham, Matthew Kotchen, James Levinsohn and Barry Nalebuff, links Musk’s political activities during the last presidential cycle and early in the new administration to weaker Tesla sales.
If that “Musk derangement syndrome,” as some have dubbed it, persists, it could further complicate the industry’s efforts to de-politicize EVs.
Looking ahead: The company has rolled out a flurry of incentives in the U.S. and is pushing to expand its Full Self‑Driving software to China and Europe in an effort to stabilize demand.
A quick word from our partner
A 10-Minute Demo That Unlocks the Best Night at NADA
If you’re already going to the 2026 NADA Show, you might as well get invited to the best night of the week.
DAS Technology is hosting a private party at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, and the only way to get a pass is by booking a short demo at Booth #1311W.
You’ll see how DAS uses AI and data to improve lead response, service retention, and marketing ROI, then enjoy a night with Daymond John, DJ Jazzy Jeff, and NFL legends Tim Brown and Brandon Marshall.
Don’t miss once-in-a-lifetime experiences like attempting a field goal and ziplining across a professional football field!
