After a softer sales month in April, the new car sales pace dipped back under 16 million.
What we know: In an updated estimate on Tuesday (May 5), Cox Automotive noted the season-average annual rate dropped to 15.9 million.
Looking at April alone, sales dipped to an estimated 1.36 million units, down from last year’s robust 1.45 million, with the threat of tariffs and price increases still looming.
This year, buyers are also contending with higher fuel prices due to the conflict in the Middle East and inflationary pressures. Gas prices have topped $4.50 nationally.
“High fuel prices are hitting household budgets and weighing on consumer sentiment. With inflation elevated, broader economic uncertainty increasing, and new-vehicle prices climbing, some would-be buyers are likely moving to the sidelines,” the update stated.
Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough added that the Bureau of Economic Analysis downgraded its annual sales rate through to April to 15.5 million, coming in 300,000 below Cox Automotive’s full-year forecast.
Cox Automotive will update its full-year forecast on June 24 at its mid-year review.
“We haven't changed our forecast yet, but negative headwinds seem to be blowing strong,” Chesbrough told CDG. “We are going to wait for May's results to come in before making any formal adjustment. Given high oil prices and low consumer confidence, it is difficult to see how this market shifts into a higher gear for the remainder of the year. We had expected a decline in 2026 from tariff and BEV policy effects, but the Iran War and the resulting high fuel costs are likely slowing sales further.”
For dealers: Sales might be down more than 6% year-over-year and down 400,000 units from March’s total of 1.4 million, but as we’ve covered, last year’s numbers make for a tough comparison due to the artificial increase in sales driven by tariffs.
That leaves current demand (and how to capture it) something every dealership and OEM is figuring out in real-time.
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