IRVING, TEXAS - New vehicle sales remain 6% behind last year but have seen an encouraging recent uptick. Speaking at the Non-Prime Auto Financing Conference in Irving, Texas, on Tuesday, Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jeremy Robb covered the current market conditions and economic impacts.
Look into current sales: As we know, the threat of tariffs drove a substantial increase in new auto sales in March and April of 2025.
This year’s sales were down through the first four months as a result, with April ending with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.5 million.
Cox Automotive May numbers were at 16.1 million compared to the May 2025 SAAR of 15.6 million.
“The new market last year was really, really strong with lots of go-ahead happening from the tariffs and people buying cars,” Robb said. “We’re running under them in late March and April. Now, we’re actually above the rate.”
“On a year-to-date basis, new vehicle sales are down 6% from where we were last year but still pretty good and better than the last several years.”
Change in inventory: Robb noted the days supply of vehicles is 78 days, about 5% above 2025.
The inventory on lots has changed to meet consumer demand with higher gas prices that reached $4.50 per gallon in May before recently receding.
“New inventory overall is sitting about 10% higher right now, but the composition has changed a whole lot,” Robb said. “There’s a lot more hybrids on the new vehicle side. All the OMs are just producing as many hybrids as they can, and consumers are wanting those. The days supply for hybrids is actually the lowest.”
Economic pressures: Inflationary pressures, aside from the increased car prices, are impacting the market. Robb pointed out that many elements of car ownership are running above the average 5-year CPI of 4.9%.
Parts and equipment are up 5.1% in that span.
Maintenance and repair costs have increased 8.5%.
Insurance premiums soared 11.5% in the last five years.
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Robb said the combination of costs, pricing, and higher interest has led to the automotive loan base shrinking by 3%.
“Looking at the costs going back to 2018, the average repair ticket was about $357, and as of February 2026, it was $720,” Robb said. “I think it’s up 7% in the last 12 months..A lot of the surveys we see, with something like your tax refund, a lot of consumers were indicating they were going to spend their tax refund doing a major repair to their vehicle because they’re more expensive and they need more funds to be able to do that.”
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