New-vehicle sales are expected to dip in April as affordability pressures continue to weigh on the market—but the month is still on track for a solid performance, according to JD Power.
The details: JD Power and GlobalData’s joint forecast projects declines in both total and retail sales year over year, with the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) also slipping in April.
Total new-vehicle sales, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,365,200, down 7.3% year over year.
New-vehicle retail sales are projected at 1,129,100, also down 7.3% from April 2025.
April total new-vehicle sales are expected to hit a SAAR of 16 million units, while retail sales are projected at 13.6 million, down 1.1 million units from 2025.
What they’re saying: “In April of last year, the industry was still feeling the effects of a tariff-driven rush to retail lots, as an additional 53,000 consumers accelerated purchases ahead of anticipated tariff-impacted price increases,” said Thomas King, president of OEM Solutions at JD Power, per a press statement. “Stripping out the inflated prior-year baseline, April 2026 points to continued resilience in new vehicle demand, even as consumers contend with elevated fuel prices and broader economic uncertainty
Why it matters: The projected sales decline suggests demand may be moderating from last year’s tariff-driven surge, but the forecast also points to a market that remains relatively stable despite affordability pressures, signaling continued opportunity for dealers, though likely in a more competitive environment where volume may depend increasingly on execution.
OUTSMART THE CAR MARKET IN 5 MINUTES A WEEK
Get insights trusted by 55,000+ car dealers. Free, fast, and built for automotive leaders.
Zooming in: Affordability continues to constrain the sales pace even as pricing and financing conditions show modest improvement, King said.
Average retail transaction prices are trending toward $45,990 in April, essentially flat year over year, while average new-vehicle loan rates are expected to fall 0.3 percentage points to 6.73%.
Despite easing borrowing costs, average monthly finance payments are expected to rise 3.1% year over year to $812, largely due to declining trade-in equity.
Average trade-in equity is trending down to $7,099, a $660 drop from a year ago, while the share of vehicles with negative equity is expected to reach 31.3%, the highest April level since 2020.
“In response, manufacturers are increasing incentive support to help offset the impact of negative equity,” noted King. “Average incentive spending per vehicle is trending towards $3,141, an 11.1% increase from a year ago.”
Also worth noting: Declining new-vehicle sales in North America and China continue to weigh on the global market, as growth in Europe, India, Korea, and South America has not offset losses, with global sales estimated to have fallen 3.5% year over year to 8.2 million units, said David Oakley, manager, Americas vehicle sales forecasts at GlobalData.
Bottom line: April’s forecast points to a market under pressure but far from collapsing, stressing the need for dealers to lean on affordability tools (from incentives to financing structures) to sustain volume in a tougher retail environment.
A quick word from our partner
Your title team shouldn't have to manually research fees across 50 states and 13,000+ local jurisdictions on every out-of-state deal.
But without the right system, that's exactly what happens.
Fee miscalculations mean your dealership absorbs the difference or reopens the deal with a buyer who already left. Manual research on every out-of-state deal costs your title staff hours they don't have.
DLR50™ by DLRdmv® calculates accurate fees across all 50 states and 13,000+ local jurisdictions, generates prefilled state-specific forms, and processes every deal through to completion.
