An Edmunds report projects that the new-vehicle market will remain stable in 2026, with higher-income buyers continuing to help sustain the market as more consumers struggle with affordability.
The details: Despite financial constraints, policy changes, and economic uncertainty, new-vehicle sales are expected to reach 16 million next year compared to 16.3 million in 2025, with some key factors helping to stabilize the market, as detailed in the report.
Although consumers are having a hard time finding great deals, they're not paying over MSRP, which is helping to keep the market balanced shifting into 2026.
The average new-vehicle price will continue to hover around $50,000, but the recent run-up in prices is believed to have leveled off—and the ease in interest rates should provide some cushion, according to Edmunds.
More affordable EV models set to launch next year, like the new Nissan Leaf and new Chevy Volt, should help to offset some of the lost sales from the end of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit.
Why it matters: For dealers, a stable but high-priced market means volume isn’t falling off a cliff, but growth is likely to depend on attracting and retaining higher-income buyers while finding creative ways to keep payments workable for everyone else. Managing mix, pricing, and finance options carefully will be key to protecting gross as rates ease but affordability remains stretched.
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Between the lines: Higher-income buyers, who have been a driving factor in helping to sustain the new-vehicle market as highlighted in a CDG News report, are expected to continue to account for a large share of new-vehicle purchases, based on 2025 trends.
Luxury shoppers remain highly loyal, with 64.2% of luxury owners trading in for another luxury vehicle this year compared to 65.9% in 2024.
Cars accounted for just 17% of the market in 2025, underscoring the continued dominance of higher-priced SUVs and trucks.
The once-dominant midsize sedan segment fell further to just 4.5% share in 2025, down from 5.3% in 2024.
What they’re saying: “The U.S. new-vehicle market appears to be settling into a sustainable rhythm as we round out 2025 and look ahead to 2026,” writes Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights at Edmunds in the report. “These volumes reflect a market that, despite affordability constraints, policy changes and economic uncertainty, has found a more natural balance in inventory, pricing, and days to turn (DTT).”
Bottom line: Dealers should plan for a “steady-as-she-goes” 2026—leaning into loyal luxury and higher-income buyers, sharpening their EV value story as more affordable models arrive, and using easing interest rates to structure more palatable payments—rather than counting on big jumps in overall demand.
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