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Hey everyone,
Tons of dealers expressed interest in knowing why Cox Automotive decided to end its licensing agreement with VINCUE, so we reached out to both parties.
And yesterday, they both responded. Coverage available at the bottom of this newsletter.
— CDG
First time reading a CDG Newsletter?
Welcome to the Market Pulse—your cheatsheet to auto retail, built to help dealers price right, stock smart, and stay ahead.
April lease returns are splitting across segments: Trucks and SUVs are returning with stronger retention, while sedans and smaller crossovers are landing below residual expectations.
That split is reshaping how units are priced and sold: Lower-retention vehicles are requiring earlier price reductions and moving more slowly, while higher-retention units are maintaining margins and moving more quickly.
And dealers are working to secure off-lease inventory earlier: This includes working lease maturities 60–90 days in advance using payoff data, service history, and direct outreach.
(Source: Finsight Auto Loan/Lease Level Data/ CDG Custom Analysis)
April lease returns are splitting between strong trucks/SUVs and weaker sedans.
As April 2026 lease returns build, incoming inventory is dividing into two clear groups based on how well vehicles are holding their value at the end of the lease.
Here’s what that means: A vehicle’s residual value is what the lender expected it to be worth after the lease term (typically expressed as a % of original MSRP).
Retention is how well that value holds up in the real market. When retention is strong, vehicles sell near their expected residual. When it’s weak, they fall short, creating pricing gaps that dealers must absorb or work through.
Now, here’s what we’re seeing: High-volume units like the 2023 Ford F-150 AWD (~5,990 units) and Nissan Rogue (~5,654 units) are returning with relatively strong retention, meaning their current market values are staying closer to original residual expectations. That’s being supported by continued demand for trucks and family-oriented SUVs.
Custom analysis via CDG’s Joe Cecala
At the same time, sedans like the Nissan Altima (~1,800 units) and Sentra (~1,800 units), along with smaller crossovers like the Chevrolet Equinox (~1,800 units), are coming back closer to 30–35% of original MSRP, below where many leases were originally set.
That gap is what creates immediate pricing pressure.
NOTE TO DEALERS:
Not all incoming April inventory carries the same pricing risk or margin potential.
Knowing this:
Consider prioritizing high-retention trucks and SUVs where market values remain aligned with residual expectations
And approach lower-retention segments cautiously with acquisition pricing that accounts for softer demand and longer time-to-turn
The above split is widening pricing gaps and margin performance across segments.
The divide between high- and low-retention vehicles is now showing up clearly in how units are priced, aged, and sold on the lot.
Here’s why: When a vehicle returns close to its expected residual value, dealers can price it confidently against the market and still maintain margin.
That’s what we’re seeing with trucks and SUVs, because strong demand is keeping retail pricing aligned, which supports faster turns and more consistent grosses.
On the flip side, when market values fall below residual expectations, those units effectively enter the market overpriced relative to demand. Dealers then either have to price them down aggressively to stay competitive or risk extended days-to-turn.
WHY IT MATTERS:
Sedans and smaller crossovers are coming back with higher supply and weaker retention, which means they’re hitting the market overpriced relative to demand.
That’s forcing earlier price drops, compressing gross, and increasing the likelihood of wholesale exits.
Point being:
If you’re not clear on which segments you’re buying, and why, it will show up fast in your margins and your days’ supply.
A quick word from our partner
Relying on paid search to sell cars is getting more expensive (and less predictable).
Cars.com puts your inventory in front of 26 million monthly shoppers who are actively in-market.1 That’s why referrals from our site to yours convert at an 89% higher rate than traffic from Google Ads.2
And here’s what most dealers miss: 64% of Cars.com shoppers don’t visit CarGurus and 69% skip AutoTrader.3 That’s incremental demand you can’t reach anywhere else.
1 Cars Commerce Internal Data, FY 2025, 2 SimilarWeb Audience Overlap, Q1 - Q3 2025, 3 DI website GA4 data, Q2 2025
In a recent conversation, Mike McVeigh, dealer at David Dodge Chrysler Jeep, broke down what this return wave is actually looking like on the ground and how his team is navigating it in real time.
Here are his Dos and Don’ts:
Do: Get ahead of lease returns before they hit your lot.
McVeigh says roughly 65% of their leases are currently going back to the leasing company, meaning the majority of that inventory is leaving the dealership entirely before they have a chance to acquire it.
That’s why McVeigh’s team is already working the next 60–90 days of lease maturities by pulling buyouts, running virtual appraisals, and identifying targets before customers ever show up.
“If you are waiting till people are in your store, you are doomed,” he said.
Mike McVeigh
Without those efforts, those same vehicles re-enter the market through lenders or auctions, where pricing is higher, and competition is tighter.
Do: Be selective, because not all returns are worth chasing.
With values diverging, McVeigh is focused on specific units he knows will perform.
“Trends are hard to find, but low-mileage wranglers and compasses are good ones to pick off,” McVeigh told me, adding, “Forget 4XE’s, those are coming back $25,000 under the money, but we are seeing some at good prices, which means cheap wranglers for the spring and summer.”
This tells us that even within “strong” segments, performance is splitting at the trim and powertrain level, too.
Don’t: Rely on tools alone.
While McVeigh’s team is working 60–90 days ahead of lease maturities (pulling buyouts, running virtual appraisals, and pre-screening units using service history and Carfax), he says the edge still comes down to execution.
“Elbow grease! I feel like a dinosaur, but sometimes the old-fashioned way works too,” he said.
His point: Data and systems can surface the right vehicles, but actually securing them requires direct outreach, real conversations, and consistent follow-up.
We put this data together to give dealers a clearer view of what’s coming in April, because knowing what’s ahead matters.
But honestly, what matters more is what you do with it.
That’s what stood out in my conversation with McVeigh.
He even told me: “The scouting and the preparation are what make the difference for us…I will have my best unit and volume month since COVID this month.”
Leasing or not, every store should be chasing the same mentality right now.
Missed yesterday’s episode of Daily Dealer Live?
Presented by:
Nowling on Data Cleansing, Karr on Web SEO, Beauregard on Financial Risk
Featured guests:
Jeremy Nowling, Sales and Implementation Director at Rohrman Automotive Group
Doug Karr, Principal SEO at Overfuel
Michael Beauregard, Supervisory Special Agent at NICB
Dealership partnership dispute ends in $20M verdict, highlighting risks of poor structure
