The auto industry may be walking into 2026 with better economic footing than it had a year ago, but that doesn’t mean dealers or OEMs should be in a hurry to push volume.
The details: From a macro standpoint, the setup looks friendlier this year, according to speakers on the Automotive and Consumer Economic Update panel at the AutoTeam America Dealer/CEO/CFO Forum & Buy-Sell Summit.
One of the panelists, Truist’s Mike Skordeles, described 2025 as “a very sloppy year,” but sees 2026 shaping up as more constructive, with GDP growth around 2.3%, just slightly higher than last year.
His reasoning: Tax refunds are projected to be meaningfully higher (roughly a 44% increase on average), interest rates are expected to continue moving lower as the Fed continues an easing cycle, and continued investment tied to AI spending is supporting the broader economy.
Consumers, he noted, have also been spending above long-term averages in five of the last six quarters, helped by wages growing faster than inflation.
“Five of the last six quarters, we’ve seen consumer spending above the long-term average,” Skordeles said. “And we think that largely continues.”
Mike Skordeles
Truist Advisory Services
The issue is: On paper, that sounds like a green light for more sales. But as each speaker explained, when demand is stable and production capacity starts to loosen, pushing for record volume comes with real risks like weaker pricing, margin pressure, and a return to volume-first behavior.
That framing set the stage for Kevin Tynan of The Presidio Group, who boiled the industry’s decision down to two paths: push for more volume, or protect pricing power.
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Tynan explained that the U.S. new-vehicle market is, fundamentally, a roughly 16-million-unit business over the long term.
He went on to add that, in 2025, the industry sold about 16.2 million vehicles, and while a 16.5-million-unit year in 2026 isn’t out of the question, the bigger concern is what it would take to get there.
Digging deeper: U.S. factories, he noted, have been running below 80% utilization for years, creating a constant temptation to “run the factory and sell it later.”
Kevin Tynan
The Presidio Group
The problem is that more volume almost inevitably brings pressure on pricing and margins, eroding the gains dealers and OEMs earned back after the pandemic.
That’s why, from Tynan’s perspective, a slightly slower year (something below the 2025 pace) would actually be more sustainable for both manufacturers and retailers.
Backing that idea: Jonathan Smoke of Cox Automotive also explained that the risk to 2026 sales is as much to the downside as the upside.
Jonathan Smoke
Cox Automotive
For context, his outlook sits closer to 15.8 million units, shaped by production decisions tied to tariffs, labor costs, and shifting powertrain strategies.
Still, for dealers, Smoke emphasized that supply constraints aren’t a bad thing, because tight supply tends to defend margins, even if it caps volume.
Put together, the panel’s message was this: Tax refunds and easing rates may juice demand early in the year, but the dealers who perform best in 2026 are likely the ones who set out to maintain discipline month-to-month.
Plus, even if new-vehicle volume is softer, the panel said dealers can (and should) offset with stronger used-vehicle and fixed operations, especially as off-lease supply begins to recover and service demand stays supported by an aging fleet.
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