Jonathan Smoke, chief economist with Cox Automotive, is reporting that the used car market is holding steady, and the Manheim data is backing him up.
Driving the news: The chief economist joined Daily Dealer Live yesterday to unpack the summer retail setup, pointing to a market that’s cooled from its tariff-fueled spring spike but is still running stronger than it looks, especially on the used side.
Cox Automotive’s data tells the same story.
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index rose 1.7% in the first half of June, hitting 208.7, up 6.5% year-over-year.
Cox says retail sales are steady, with healthy conversion rates and normal seasonal depreciation returning.
Wholesale supply remains tight at 25 days, still 2 days lower than this time last year.
Why it’s happening: Smoke points to a cooling new-car market weighed down by production cuts, pricing complexity, and interest rate fatigue.
And that’s nudging more buyers toward used, where inventory is leaner, pricing is more predictable, and urgency is still lingering.
“We had at least 7 million fewer retail sales than we should have since 2021,” he said. “There are a lot of people who are living with a vehicle that they would've replaced years ago… they’re just looking for a price and payment.”
Why this matters: That backlog is keeping a floor under used demand.
The downside, though, is that sourcing remains a pain point.
As Smoke put it: “Dealers are gonna have to work hard at sourcing inventory and understanding and addressing what’s really moving in a market,” Smoke said. “The more sources of inventory that a dealer can have—from buying directly from the street, from trades, from leased vehicles—the better.”
Simply put: The fewer channels dealers have in play, the less control they keep.
And again, the data reflects it:
MMR retention hit 99.2%, up from late May, meaning used vehicles are selling almost exactly in line with expected wholesale values.
All major segments posted YoY gains in adjusted prices, led by luxury (+8.8%) and trucks (+3.9%).
EVs were up 11.1% YoY, but only +0.7% MoM, trailing non-EVs (+2%) in June momentum.
Between the lines: Affordability is still a top concern, but not in the way most think.
Smoke pointed out that traditional metrics, like the affordability index based on median household income, don’t reflect who’s actually buying.
“Newsflash, median households don't buy new vehicles,” he said.
Instead, demand is being shaped by higher-income shoppers, many of whom are opting for used instead of new as they wait out higher rates and complex pricing.
Bottom line: Used is largely propping up the whole game right now. For dealers, that means staying lean, sourcing smart, and maximizing gross while the market’s still on your side.
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Sources: 1. Similarweb, Traffic Report (Cars.com, Autotrader, TrueCar, CARFAX Listings (defined as CARFAX Total visits minus Vehicle History Reports traffic), Q1'25, USA. 2. CarGurus analysis of US dealers that changed a vehicle price based on NBDR recommendations compared to vehicles without an NBDR- informed price change from Nov 2023 through Dec 2024.
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