Manheim wholesale prices for used vehicles rose year over year in March, driven in part by stronger consumer demand for used cars.
The details: According to Cox Automotive, its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 215.3, up 6.2% YoY and marking its highest level since the summer of 2023.
The Manheim Market Report (MMR) shows three-year-old index prices rose 2.2% for the month, slightly above seasonal norms.
MMR retention averaged 100.5%, flat YoY and up 0.2 percentage points from February, in line with seasonal norms.
Sales conversion, meanwhile, reached 68.2% in Manheim’s latest assessment, 4.6 points above the March three-year average and 5.5 points above February’s 62.7%.
What they’re saying: “Sales conversion rates, a clear sign of demand, were higher against 2025 for every week but one in Q1, and vehicle value trends at auction show we are well ahead of last year and where we would normally be during a spring bounce in the wholesale markets,” said Jeremy Robb, chief economist at Cox Automotive.
“We thought we’d see some impact from the Middle East conflict, and that may still happen. But right now, the data is clear: used-vehicle demand is healthy, and inventory levels are relatively tight.”
Why it matters: Firmer wholesale pricing is another sign that used demand remains resilient, but it also means stores may face more pressure on acquisition costs as competition for desirable used inventory intensifies.
Between the lines: With affordability pressure in the new-vehicle market, retail conditions for used vehicles strengthened in the first quarter of 2026 as the spring selling season arrived, helped by higher-than-average tax refunds, according to Cox.
Used-vehicle retail sales were approximately 2% higher year over year during the first quarter.
Retail inventory tightened in Q1, with days’ supply falling below 40 in March—the lowest point in 2026 and down from year-ago levels.
List prices at the retail level for popular three-year-old vehicles were running roughly 2% higher than last year and above typical seasonal trends.
Also worth noting: Wholesale EV volume at Manheim set a record in Q1, with nearly 37,000 units sold, and initial retail sales estimates for used EVs suggest more than 100,000 used EVs were sold in the quarter.
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Looking ahead: Cox Automotive’s 2026 used-vehicle outlook remains largely intact, with the company projecting a softer second half to offset a stronger-than-expected start in the wholesale market.
Total used-vehicle sales are still forecast to decline 1% year over year, though the retail forecast was raised to 20.4 million units from 20.3 million.
Wholesale pricing is expected to follow normal seasonality, with the MUVVI projected to rise about 2% by year-end 2026.
“As we move towards summer, we expect Manheim values to hold their ground with many more consumers yet to file their tax returns this year,” said Robb. “The end of March typically proves to be the ‘peak’ for price action at Manheim.
The Middle East conflict could dampen the spirits of the U.S. consumer, but we just haven’t seen it yet - our data is showing resiliency in the economy.”
Bottom line: Used vehicles continue to be a relative bright spot for dealers, with healthy demand and tight supply helping support pricing. Still, stronger wholesale values can cut into margins if stores are not disciplined on sourcing and inventory mix as the market moves deeper into the year.
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