A motor oil shortage appears to be looming as prices surge amid the war in Iran, with Toyota and Nissan dealers already being advised on how to prepare for potential supply disruptions.
The details: Damage to key facilities in the Middle East, coupled with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has created what CNN described as “the perfect storm” for a motor oil shortage.
Nearly half (44%) of the Group III base oil used in motor oil production comes from just three Persian Gulf producers — all affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Qatar’s Pearl GTL—the world’s largest gas-to-liquids plant and a major Group III supplier—was seriously damaged, taking a key source of supply offline indefinitely.
Over the past two and a half months, wholesale motor oil has seen three rounds of price increases, with some producers raising bulk distributor prices by $5 or more per gallon, compared with 70 to 80 cents in a typical year.
What they’re saying: “Three rounds of price increases over two and a half months is unheard of. And the magnitude is stunning,” said Tom Glenn, president and founder of Petroleum Trends International and publisher of JobbersWorld, per CNN. “I’ve been in this business since 1979, and I’ve never seen anything quite like this.”
Why it matters: Rising oil costs and potential shortages could pressure dealership fixed ops, particularly service departments reliant on consistent lubricant supply and predictable maintenance margins.
OUTSMART THE CAR MARKET IN 5 MINUTES A WEEK
Get insights trusted by 55,000+ car dealers. Free, fast, and built for automotive leaders.
Zooming in: An internal Toyota dealer bulletin dated April 30, 2026, warned service managers that supplies of Toyota Genuine Motor Oil in 0W-8 and 0W-16 viscosities could become difficult to maintain, Yahoo Autos reported, while a Nissan dealer bulletin outlined similar supply constraints.
Toyota dealers were instructed to temporarily substitute certain factory-specified oil viscosities for one service interval to ease inventory pressure.
Under the bulletin, 20% of vehicles that normally require 0W-8 will receive 0W-16, while 10% of those specified for 0W-16 will temporarily get 0W-20.
The Nissan dealer bulletin (dated May 1, 2026) said allocations of Nissan Genuine Oil, including Mobil and Mobil 1 variants, will be capped at 55% of year-ago purchase volumes, with the automaker working to secure alternate sources.
What they’re saying: “We’re looking at shortages—I have no doubt in my mind,” said Holly Alfano, CEO of ILMA, which expects the U.S. to run out of Middle East Gulf-origin Group III by June, per CNN. “It’s a big mess—and it’s not going to be resolved quickly. It could take a year or so before we see any real relief.”
Bottom line: A prolonged motor oil shortage could create real operational headaches for dealers, especially in service, making inventory management, supplier communication, and customer transparency more critical if supply constraints deepen.
A quick word from our partner
In a market where shoppers are stretching every dollar, your listings need to answer every question before it’s asked.
93% of car buyers use auto marketplaces in their path to purchase — and a complete listing often separates a click from a pass.
How you merchandise your vehicles influences every stage, from AI search to your first sales conversation.
Our merchandising guide gives you the tactics to turn more VDP views into qualified leads.
