Total new-vehicle sales for March are projected to deliver mixed results, reaching the highest monthly transaction total so far in 2026 but declining year over year, according to J.D. Power.
The details: Based on a joint forecast with GlobalData, retail and non-retail transactions are expected to reach 1,372,877, down 11.4% YoY but up 11.9% from February 2026.
New-vehicle retail sales are projected to reach 1,120,601, down 13.3% from March 2025 but up 14.3% from February 2026.
That amounts to a 16.6% decline from 2025 when comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days.
Retail new-vehicle seasonally adjusted annualized rate is projected at 13.1 million, down 2.1 million YoY and up 391,242 from February 2026.
What they’re saying: “This apparent contradiction is really a technical anomaly–March 2025 sales were inflated by consumers who rushed to showrooms in anticipation of a big increase in vehicle prices due to tariffs,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at JD Power, per a press statement. “In fact, the rush to showrooms last March resulted in a total annualized sales pace of 18.1 million, the highest of any month in 2025 and well above the full-year sales pace of 16.3 million.”
Why it matters: The March outlook suggests the market is still moving, but year-over-year comparisons may paint a harsher picture than conditions on the ground, making it important for dealers to focus on current momentum, margins, and inventory turn rather than relying too heavily on distorted comparisons to last year’s tariff-driven surge.
Between the lines: J.D. Power and GlobalData’s March forecast also points to several other retail trends, from average transaction prices to moderating interest rates, both month-over-month and YoY.
Average retail transaction prices are expected to rise 2.5% to $45,859 from a year ago.
Manufacturers’ incentive spend per vehicle is on track to reach $3,325, which is $165 higher than a year ago.
The average interest rate for new-vehicle loans in March is 6.55%, down 36 basis points from a year ago.
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Zooming in: Dealers are expected to see slightly shorter days’ supply on new vehicles, with front-end gross up modestly both MoM and YoY, while trade-in equity continues to vary.
The average time a new vehicle remains in a dealer’s inventory before sale is expected to be 55 days in March, down from 57 days a year ago.
About 28.7% of vehicles are expected to sell in less than 10 days in March, down 2.6 percentage points from a year ago.
Retail profit per unit is projected at $2,452, up $26 from March 2025 and up $80 from February 2026.
Trade-in equity is trending to $6,869 in March, down $240 YoY, with 30.5% of trade-ins expected to have negative equity, up 4.2 percentage points from March 2025.
“Looking ahead, interpreting year-over-year results will remain unusually challenging for most of the year, as the industry continues to work through the aftereffects of two major pull-ahead events in 2025,” said King.
Bottom line: March should bring a healthier sales pace than February, but the numbers come with important caveats. For dealers, the bigger takeaway is that affordability pressures, softer trade-in positions, and unusual year-over-year comparisons will continue to shape performance even as inventory, incentives, and profits show signs of improvement.
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