Vehicles coming off lease and returning to the wholesale market increased by more than 20% in the past year, but the mix is changing with more EVs.
Driving the news: The Manheim Used Vehicle Index for Q3 shows the leasing market returning more vehicles to the wholesale used market.
In fact, lease returns are up 21% from 2025.
In the third quarter, lease returns rose 11% from the second quarter.
Zooming in: Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jeremy Robb explained that many of these leases are from 2023, originating during the post-pandemic boost in leasing.
But even with the 2023 leasing increase, lease check-ins are still down 55% from 2019.
“In 2023, inventory recovery from the pandemic was already pretty much done, but we still had less leasing overall than we had had prior to the pandemic,” Robb told CDG News.
Increase in EVs: The inventory mix of the vehicles returning off lease is changing.
The share of EVs from the lease maturities is expected to grow to 16% in the second half of this year.
Additionally, in 2027, the mix will hit 19% EVs.
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Looking ahead: Robb points out that today’s leasing market remains behind 2019, and that lease returns will have peaks and valleys over the next few years.
Inventory is expected to keep picking up through the summer of 2027 before another dip and then a rise again in 2028.
“Even though the off-lease supply is growing, it's keeping it quite a bit lower than what it was back in the 2019 era,” Robb said. “That's the thing that keeps wholesale supply limited as we move out through 2028 and 2029.”
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