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Welcome to the Market Pulse—your no-fluff cheatsheet to auto retail, built to help dealers price right, stock smart, and stay ahead.
Off-lease EV volumes are preparing to soar in 2026: More than 300K off-lease EV units are set to return next year, up 200%+ YoY.
Used EV values are already shifting: The average listing price has dropped 9% YoY to about $37K, with nearly 1 in 3 units listed under $25K.
As a result, the industry is shifting how it sells EVs: Operators who treat EVs as a powertrain (not a debate) and sell clear value and credible battery confidence are best equipped for 2026.
(Source: Recurrent Auto / J.D. Power / Cox Automotive)
Off-lease EV supply is preparing to flood dealer lots in 2026.
Industry data from Recurrent and J.D. Power show about 123,000 EVs returning from lease in 2025, then jumping more than 200% to as many as 330,000 in 2026.
By 2027, the total could reach 650,000, with most expected to be 2022–2023 models coming back with around 25K miles and plenty of battery warranty left.
And because the pipeline is locked in, the market is starting to adjust early.
What we mean: After a 9% drop this year, the average listing price for a used EV now sits around $36,976, according to Cox Automotive. In addition to that, nearly 1 in 3 is listed for under $25,000.
CDG analysis via Joe Cecala
This tells us shoppers are increasingly seeing EVs priced alongside mainstream used sedans and SUVs, not just niche tech products.
NOTE TO DEALERS:
More affordable EVs mean more volume to sell, but only for stores that can turn them quickly and with strategy.
The strategy:
Train your teams asap on battery health reports, warranty coverage, and how to simply explain range/charging.
Establish a simple EV intake checklist…battery test, charger check, software update, etc.
And explore OEM programs that improve EV readiness from service training to facility upgrades.
Accelerating depreciation is reshaping how dealers profit from used EVs.
We know the return of off-lease EVs will swell used inventory in the coming months, based on what we covered above. However, values are already changing now.
Here’s why: Leases written in 2022–2023 assumed EVs would keep about half their value after three years. In reality, though, they’re tracking closer to 35–40%, which is a miss big enough to create losses for finance arms and send more units straight to auction.
That extra volume is what’s pulling prices down and widening the gap between wholesale and retail.
By comparison: Gas vehicles still hold 70–80% of their value at the three-year mark.
And that difference is worth noting now because thousands of three-year-old EVs are about to be returning to market just as they reach their fastest depreciation stage.
WHY IT MATTERS:
This will require dealers to move aging units fast and make up margin through:
Well-executed battery state-of-health reports
Home-charger installations
And new F&I products like the unlimited EV battery warranty offered by Alex Lawrence’s EV Auto
These are the post-sale touchpoints where dealers can recapture margin.
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In a recent conversation I had with Jimmy Douglas, CEO of Plug, he outlined how the surge of off-lease EVs will test dealers’ readiness and where the biggest advantages will come for those who start early.
Here are his Dos and Don’ts from the ground:
Do: Use the remainder of 2025 to build a 2026 EV game plan.
Douglas told me he isn’t an EV absolutist and that he knows that this isn’t a fit-for-all model. But for dealers who’ve been selling EVs, or waiting for the right time to start, he says this next year is the time.
“Now’s as good a time as any to dive into it. There’s far less competition, both for the inventory and for the customers. So it behooves [dealers] to get serious about [EVs] if they are ready to do so.”
Jimmy Douglas
His point: You don’t have to be “all in” on EVs to benefit. Just well-positioned before the wave hits.
Do: Anchor every sale in EV battery confidence.
Battery performance in EVs is outperforming expectations, but dealers are still figuring out how to show that to buyers.
“Both consumers and dealers are more likely to transact quickly and at more favorable values when they have certainty around the battery health,” Douglas said.
The issue, he argues, is that the industry is allowing perfection to be the enemy of good enough. Meaning, operators are waiting for a universal standard to emerge, but should be pushing for a consistent, credible battery report that can build trust and move inventory faster.
Don’t: Make selling EVs harder than it needs to be.
Another one of the industry’s biggest hurdles, per Douglas, is tone. EVs have been framed as a debate, not a product or powertrain, and that’s slowing down adoption at every level.
As he explained: “For some reason, electric vehicles have gotten wrapped up into an ideological debate, and some of the discourse is pretty far away from rational or data-driven, and that’s hurting the industry.”
The upside: Dealers who strip the emotion out of the sale and position EVs like any other powertrain (based on value, performance, and fit) should be able to move units more effectively, without adding unnecessary noise to industry concerns.
There’s an advantage to knowing what’s coming — time.
Time to prepare, to plan, to train. And those are luxuries in a market that’s been blindsided by tariffs, chip shortages, and pandemics.
My advice: Whether you’re already retailing used EVs or still waiting for the right entry point, frame this as an opportunity, and figure out exactly how your store, your team, and your market can land on the better side of the expected surge in supply.
If you had to bet on one lever to pull harder, what would it be?
Missed yesterday’s episode of Daily Dealer Live?
Presented by:
Borches on Recent Acquisitions, Hales on Digital Retailing Wins
Featured guests:
Liza Borches, President & CEO of Carter Myers Automotive
Jake Hales, Digital Operations Manager at Gee Automotive Companies
Three opportunities hitting the CDG Job Board right now:
Leikin Motor Companies: Volvo Sales Manager (Cleveland, Ohio)
Sunrise Toyota: Service Advisor (Oakdale, New York)
Sames Auto Group: Service Manager (Laredo, Texas)
Looking to hire? Add your roles today—it’s 100% free.
