420K lease returns are coming to market—here’s how dealers are preparing

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Welcome to the Market Pulse—your cheatsheet to auto retail, built to help dealers price right, stock smart, and stay ahead.

Lease returns are accelerating back into market: Roughly 420K units are projected to mature in 2026, with volume peaking between May and September.
Some models are emerging as stronger buys right now: Vehicles like the Nissan Rogue and Toyota Tacoma are holding value better vs other models like the Ford Escape and Chevrolet Equinox.
And dealer retention strategies are evolving: More dealers are starting lease conversations earlier and focusing on loyalty to control where returning vehicles land.

(Source: Finsight Auto Lease Level, Cox Automotive, Fitch Ratings Auto Residual Value Lease Index / GM Financial / World Omni / Ford Credit / Nissan / BMW Financial Services )

Lease maturities are rebuilding structured acquisition flow.

After a few uneven years of low lease volume and production disruptions, 2026 is bringing lease returns back to scale.

What we found: Our analysis shows roughly 420K lease maturities projected across major brands this year, with volume building through spring and peaking between May and September.

There’s a wave of opportunity there, because lease returns are one of the cleanest ways to acquire used inventory.

But there’s also the reality that many of these maturities won’t stay at the originating store.

Instead, a large share will flow straight to auction, and when that happens, the impact will likely spread beyond retention programs and straight into the broader used-car market.

NOTE TO DEALERS:

When supply builds quickly, pricing pressure doesn’t stay isolated to one brand or store. It shows up across competing segments.

To prepare for that:

Start retention outreach 90–120 days before maturity, not when the car lands.
And decide in Q1 which models you’re planning to retain or buy out come Q2/Q3 vs which ones you’ll let go to auction or outside buyers.

Model-level residual spreads are separating smart buys from risky ones.

As these maturities hit the market not every unit deserves the same acquisition strategy.

Here’s what we found: Among high-volume 2026 returns, some models (few listed below) are holding 65–69% of original MSRP after three years.

Nissan Rogue AWD — 68.7%
Nissan Pathfinder — 68.6%
Chevrolet Silverado — 65.6%
GMC Sierra — 65.0%

These units come back with stronger resale support and more room to protect margin.

On the other side, though:

Ford Escape — 53.6%
Lincoln Corsair — 51.7%
Lincoln Nautilus — 51.4%
Cadillac XT5 — 47.9%

Meaning just about half their value is gone before they even come back to market.

WHY IT MATTERS:

On a $30,000 original MSRP vehicle, the difference between a high-60% residual and a low-50% residual can represent roughly $4,500–$5,000 in retained value before recon, transport, or market movement.

Aka knowing when to say no > chasing volume that costs you money.

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As lease maturities ramp up and model-level differences become more important, MidAtlantic dealer Mike McVeigh (David Dodge Chrysler Jeep) says “this next 2-3 years will be all about relationship maintenance and controlling your audience.”

Here’s how he’s defining that at his store:

Do: Start the outreach process long before maturity notices show up.

McVeigh says his store treats lease retention as a long runway, not a last-minute push.

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“We have always run our off-lease portfolio at 12 months ‘til expiration. Engaging and getting the ball rolling. I personally touch my clients through out the lease term because as we know their can be anomalies in programs.”

Mike McVeigh

This early contact gives his team time to adjust before shoppers feel the pressure.

Do: Run acquisition math by trim level, not just by model name.

The biggest wins, per McVeigh, come from understanding where programs are aggressive and where they’ve quietly pulled back.

“Right now Ram 1500, Wrangler, and Grand Cherokee two-row are very aggressive. But the three-row Grand…the program and payment are awful.”

He ties those shifts directly to residual performance and lender adjustments on prior model years, but says details like those signal to his shop what’s worth their time and what isn’t.

Do: Own the relationship, not just the process.

While BDC handles much of the lease-maturity outreach, McVeigh says strong salespeople still manage their own client base.

“My clients are on my contacts with the make and model of the car they got from me. When they call it’s, ‘Hey, Ash, how’s the Wrangler?’ It makes them feel valued because I remember.”

His POV: The small touches are what keep customers from shopping somewhere else when the lease ends.

“It isn’t fun to get the battery is dead text at 8 a.m. on a Sunday, but how you respond earns you a client for life,” McVeigh added.

One thing that stood out in my conversation with McVeigh: 89% of his customers don’t shop another dealer when it’s time to replace their vehicle.

But here’s the part I like most:

He’s earning that loyalty via small habits like saving customers contact info in his phone with the make and model they drive so when they call, he remembers instantly.

Takes two seconds. Costs nothing.

And honestly, that was my biggest takeaway here: Some of the strongest strategies are the small, intentional moves dealers can start tomorrow. Just comes down to who’s willing to sweat the details everyone else overlooks.