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The car market in 2025 is a complex web of dynamics—from pricing pressure and tight inventory to lead quality concerns and operational headwinds.
To make sense of it, we tapped our online dealer community for a nationwide temperature check. And the responses revealed three major themes that go beyond anecdotes and signal broader structural trends...
Even the most reliable brands are starting to show cracks.
One thing was loud and clear this month: Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram (CDJR) dealers are struggling on the whole (with some exceptions). Doesn’t matter if you’re in the Midwest, the Southeast, or Canada—more than a few dealers said this is the slowest month they’ve ever seen.
And Stellantis seems to know it. Ram just rolled out a 10-year/100,000-mile powertrain warranty for 2026 models. It’s a big swing—double what Ford, GM, and Toyota offer on gas trucks—and part of a broader 18-month turnaround plan. Why? Because truck buyers are financing for 7+ years and keeping vehicles for 10–12. The old 5-year/60,000 mile warranty just doesn’t cut it anymore.
But here’s what really caught my attention: I saw dozens of comments from Toyota and Honda dealers reporting a sudden drop in traffic. These brands are supposed to be the safest plays in a down cycle. If they’re wobbling, it’s a serious signal.
Meanwhile, luxury dealers (from Mercedes to Cadillac and even Ferrari) say business is solid. Pre-owned is hot. And the high-income buyer is still in.
The signal: The top end keeps moving, while the middle starts to slip.
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Dealers are feeling the hangover from a tariff-fueled Spring as showroom traffic slows.
Let’s not sugarcoat it—this was the slowest temperature check we’ve seen all year. Dealers in Iowa, Chicago, Connecticut, Florida, and SoCal all said the same thing: little traffic, fewer calls, and basically zero urgency.
Via CDG Temperature Check on X and Instagram
One dealer said it feels worse than 2008. Another (normally a 180-car/month store) said they were at 55 units two weeks in.
Sure, some of it is seasonal. June is usually choppy—vacations, graduations, and heat waves don’t help showroom traffic. But this year has three extra forces affecting the market...
Tariff whiplash. Everyone from BMW to Toyota pulled buyers forward in Q1 to beat any tariff-driven price hikes. Some estimates say there were up to 150,000 early purchases. That means fewer replacement buyers, and dealers are sitting in the lull.
CDK cyberattack anniversary. Last June’s cyberattack paralyzed thousands of rooftops for over two weeks. So, monthly reporting in June and July will likely be distorted for a massive chunk of the dealer body.
Support is drying up. A majority of OEMs pulled back on incentives in May—especially brands like VW, Mazda, Land Rover, Volvo, and BMW, which are all down more than 10%. Only a few brands like Toyota and Tesla increased spending, but even then, Toyota’s incentives only hit 4.1% of ATP (still well below the industry average).
Via Cox Automotive
The signal: This June is shaping up to be a "perfect storm" of demand displacement instead of a fundamentally weak market.
Internet leads are flooding in, but many buyers are staying on the sidelines.
We also got a wave of comments this month about internet leads—and not the good kind.
Dealers across several markets say lead quality has dropped off a cliff. One Honda GM said their leads felt like “buy-here-pay-here” traffic. Another VW manager in Queens said they’re “living off retention” because inbound volume is trash. And in places like Iowa and the Midwest, some stores say the internet is a “cesspool of bogus leads.”
We also saw several comments from dealers saying buyers are submitting leads earlier in the process—sometimes weeks or months before they're ready to transact. That throws off close rates, burns BDC hours, and floods the pipeline with soft traffic.
One likely reason: New car affordability is frozen at 2025 lows.
Via Cox Automotive
The average monthly payment hit $756, and average interest rates are back near 10%. So buyers are circling, researching, and waiting, but not pulling the trigger.
At Van Horn Automotive, Tina Tasche said their BDC is seeing the same shift: more noise, less intent. So, they’re leaning on AI to filter low-quality leads and free up agents for higher-value work. They’ve also introduced hyper-targeted campaigns using a new customer data platform, she mentioned on Daily Dealer Live.
The signal: Economic uncertainty is driving more price shopping and comparison hunting, flooding dealers with people who are looking but not seriously buying.
Here's the thing—uncertainty is creating opportunity for dealers who are willing to adapt.
While competitors wait for traditional patterns to return, there's a real advantage in optimizing for the market that actually exists—better lead qualification, smarter inventory decisions, stronger retention focus. And the dealers making these adjustments now will own their markets when conditions begin to balance out.
Missed yesterday’s episode of Daily Dealer Live?
The most American-made cars of 2025, new car affordability, and more
This episode is brought to you by: Experian Automotive
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Jonathan Smoke, Chief Economist at Cox Automotive
Jeff Zonen, Operating Partner & Executive Manager at Infiniti City of Queens, Infiniti City of Massapequa & KIA City of the Bronx
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Shout out to Auto Hauler Exchange, Lotlinx, and ActivEngage for making this episode possible!
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Three opportunities hitting the CDG Job Board right now:
Mark Jacobson Toyota: Pre-Owned Sales Director (North Carolina)
Withum: Automotive Dealership Lead Consultant (Florida)
