After a stronger-than-usual spring, the new car market is now easing back into a familiar rhythm.
By the numbers: New-vehicle inventory sits at 2.47 million units nationwide, down just 0.6% from May and 12.2% lower than last year, per Cox Automotive.
The sales pace dropped 5.3% in May, but compared to last year, sales are only down 1.5%.
Days' supply rose to 70, up from 67 in April, but still nine days tighter than this time last year.
Between the lines: 2026 models are taking a lot longer to arrive on dealer lots.
This time of year, 6–7% of inventory is usually made up of next-model-year vehicles. But right now, 2026 model-year cars only make up 3% of inventory.
The model-year changeover is typically when automakers adjust pricing. But many OEMs are delaying their MY 2026 launches to avoid locking in prices in case of sudden, tariff-related cost increases.
Brand highlights:
BMW and Genesis are bucking the trend. Nearly one-third of their inventory is already MY 2026.
Mitsubishi is on the other end entirely, with 40% of its inventory still MY2024. That’s a red flag for aging inventory exposure, especially if pricing stagnates.
Toyota and Lexus are keeping it lean on purpose. 29 and 30 days of supply, respectively—among the tightest in the industry.
Meanwhile, Jaguar dealers sit on 126 days’ supply—more than four months’ worth of cars on the lot and few signs of urgency to move them.
Bottom line: For most dealers, though, this environment is oddly… workable. Floorplan costs are contained. Turn rates are decent. And while incentives remain modest, they haven't disappeared.
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