Trade-in values on 3-year-old vehicles exceed forecasts by thousands — report

Vehicles built in Canada, Japan, and Mexico are exceeding projected values by up to $7,760. (3 min. read)

Author

Ash Savage
May 23, 2025

Used-car supply is thinning out, and the trade-ins’ build origin could be dealers’ biggest margin lever.

That was one of the main takeaways from Edmunds’ latest Q1 2025 report, which shows that resale values for 3-year-old vehicles are outperforming forecasts in some unexpected ways.

And not equally, either.

The findings: Vehicles built in Canada, Japan, and Mexico are exceeding projected values by up to $7,760, turning what used to be routine trade-ins into unpredictable (and highly profitable) plays.

By the numbers: Country of build origin is emerging as a key margin lever. Vehicles built outside the U.S. are generating unexpected resale gains.

  • Canada: +$7,760

  • Japan: +$6,762

  • Mexico: +$6,428

  • U.S.: +$6,853

  • Germany and South Korea: +$4,000–$4,300

Why this matters: That value spike is a warning shot for most brands, but especially for nameplates like Subaru and Mazda, where import-heavy lineups are most exposed, Edmunds analyst Joseph Yoon told CDG.

On top of that: It’s a sign of what’s already in motion, with tariffs tightening new-vehicle availability, leasing volumes hovering below pre-pandemic levels, and lightly used vehicles (the backbone of many used departments) failing to return in meaningful numbers.

And Edmunds’ Q1 data backs it up…

  • Average price of 3-year-old used car: $30,522 (highest since mid-2023)

  • Gap between new and used prices: $16,970 (narrowest since 2022)

  • Days to turn: 38 days (longest since Q1 2021)

  • Average age of listed used cars: 6.1 years (up from 5.7 a year ago)

The signal: The used market is shifting upstream—fewer near-new units, older trade-ins, and rising prices are forcing dealers to adapt on the fly.

So what now?

Yoon’s opinion: “It would be in the dealer’s best interest to try to get ahead of this as much as possible and to see if they can coax people out of their existing cars to build their inventory as much as possible,” Yoon told CDG.

What we’re watching: Yoon says inventory remains the clearest signal of where pricing is headed—and if supply tightens again, another price spike like 2021 isn’t off the table. 

“Nobody wants to see that twice in five years,” he told CDG.

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