August isn’t over yet, but J.D. Power and GlobalData say it’s shaping up to be one of the strongest months for new-vehicle sales in 2025.
By the numbers: New-vehicle sales are projected at 1.48 million units, up 8.2% from last year.
Of those transactions, retail sales are forecasted to make up about 1.28 million units, a 7.8% increase, or 4% lift once adjusted for one fewer selling day.
On a dollar basis, consumers are headed for another record $54.6 billion in collective new-car spend, with average monthly payments climbing to $743, also a record.
The problem: That looks like strength, but as J.D. Power highlights, the data couldn’t be more distorted. (Knock on wood…)
Here’s what they mean: The federal $7,500 lease credit expires Sept. 30, and as a result, tons of buyers are coming to market before that window closes.
The forecast even highlighted that EV retail share is pacing toward 12% in August, a leap from 9.5% at this time last year.
“There are 197,000 EV units on the ground, down just 10,000 from July, and a robust 59-day supply,” Tyson Jominy, SVP of data and analytics at J.D. Power, said.“Yet, like Cinderella’s magic, this brilliance faces a deadline—when the clock strikes midnight on Oct. 1, the $7,500 federal support vanishes, threatening to turn this inventory into costly pumpkins for automakers and dealers.”
Beyond that: Labor Day weekend, one of the strongest selling stretches of the year, falls inside the August reporting window, padding sales totals.
That means September loses one of its biggest demand drivers and will lean almost entirely on EV urgency to keep pace.
Adding to concerns: Incentives in the broader market remain muted, and lease returns are lacking.
New-vehicle incentives are averaging just $3,105 per unit, or 6.2% of MSRP, flat vs last year and lighter than the typical late-summer push, per the report.
After the leasing pullback of 2022, far fewer customers are rolling into showrooms with cars to trade.
That cycle has yet to normalize, and without it, the kind of momentum dealers usually count on to carry through Q4 looks thin.
Big picture: August might be one of the last inflated months of 2025, because when the $7,500 credits expire and Labor Day’s demand bump fades, the scaffolding comes off. That’s when dealers who can pivot fastest, whether by tightening EV pricing, leaning into used, or reshaping offers around payments, will be the ones keeping volume while others stall out.
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