The seasonally adjusted average rate fell from 16.1 million units in September to 15.6 million in October, according to JD Power's latest sales forecast.
Driving the news: The JD Power data show SAAR for October is expected to be about the same as October 2025.
Last October was impacted by a sales decline after the Clean Vehicle credits for EVs expired on Sept. 30, 2025.
Total sales were expected to be 1.3 million, almost the same as in September.
“October results reflect the continued resilience of new-vehicle demand, with total sales on pace to rise 0.2% year over year, or 3.9% without adjusting for selling days,” said JD Power’s President of OEM Solutions, Thomas King, in the forecast release.
Zooming in: Average monthly payments on a new car rose $2 in the past month to a record October high of $823, with interest rates inching up to 6.81%, per JD Power's data.
The average transaction was at $46,329.
Edmunds, meanwhile, estimated negative equity slightly above 29%.
“Affordability remains a headwind,” King said. “The average monthly payment is expected to rise 2.6% even as the average transaction price is forecast to dip 0.1%. Higher interest rates and lower trade-in equity are driving the gap, increasing both the amount financed and the cost of financing it.”
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Incentives inch down: The average new-car incentive fell from $3,574 to $3,304 over the past month.
Incentives are up 13.1% from last October and sit around 6% of MRSP.
Average incentive spend is up 17.5% for ICE and hybrids at $3,142.
Conversely, EV incentives are down 42% to $7,531 in the past year.
“To offset the affordability challenges, manufacturers are leaning harder into discounts to keep buyers in the market,” King said.
Hybrid share grows: Hybrid sales share bumped 4 percentage points from last year to 18.6%.
That share grew by 1.6 percentage points since September.
The EV share remained at almost 7%, and ICE vehicles at nearly 73%.
Bottom line: October sales held steady, but affordability remains a factor, so incentives are likely to play a decent role in dealer sales for the rest of the year.
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