Rivian $RIVN ( ▲ 26.64% ) projects vehicle deliveries will rise 53% in 2026 as the automaker rolls out its highly anticipated electric R2 SUV, and continues spending cash to scale production.
The details: Priced to compete against the Tesla Model Y, the R2 (starting at $45,000) is central to Rivian’s push for growth amid slowing EV demand, with deliveries of the smaller SUV expected to start in Q2.
Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe told CNBC’s Phil LeBeau that the R2 is expected to drive the “majority of the volume” for the company by the end of next year.
In 2026, Rivian is projecting 20,000 to 25,000 deliveries of the R2, far more than Wall Street’s expectations of 13,400 units. That brings Rivian’s annual guidance to 62,000 - 67,000 deliveries.
The company expects volumes for the R1T pickup, R1S SUV and its electric delivery vans to remain flat from 2025 levels, when it delivered 42,247 vehicles.
What they’re saying: "Rivian is focused on shifting from a luxury brand to a high-volume mass market player," Andrew Rocco, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research (via Reuters). The main hurdle is to ensure there are no production issues like they encountered in the past."
Andrew Rocco
Zacks Investment Research
Worth noting: The R2s will initially be built at Rivian’s Illinois facility, with plans to expand production at a new $5 billion plant being built in Georgia.
Why it matters: The R2’s arrival signals a fresh wave of EV crossovers aimed at the mainstream sweet spot, meaning more cross-shopping with high-volume nameplates, more trade-ins from early EV adopters, and a new set of objections to overcome (price, charging, and reliability).
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Between the lines: Rivian’s 2026 R2 launch, paired with the expansion of its in-house autonomous vehicle strategy, is showing up in how much capital it’s pouring into the effort.
Rivian’s capital spending is expected to nearly double to between $1.95 billion and $2.05 billion in 2026, up from the $1.92 billion previously projected.
Rivian’s cash and cash equivalents stood at $3.58 billion at the end of December, down from $4.44 billion at the end of September.
Bottom line: With the R2 on its way and the R3/R3X in the pipeline, Rivian needs to scale production quickly with minimal issues, get buyers to commit at volume, and overcome slowing EV demand in the U.S.
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