October's new-vehicle numbers confirmed what most dealers were already feeling in the showroom: the EV pull-ahead ended.
By the numbers: According to the J.D. Power and GlobalData forecast, total new vehicle sales were estimated to reach 1.25 million units, down 6.9% year-over-year. Analysts expected retail sales to slip nearly 6%, and (seasonally adjusted annual rate) SAAR to drop to 15.1 million—off by more than a million units from last October.
The details: When federal EV credits expired Sept. 30, shoppers rushed to buy before the deadline.
That surge pulled demand forward—EVs spiked to a record 12.9% share in September—then slid back to 5.2% in October.
Thomas King, President of OEM Solutions for J.D. Power, noted that EVs "account for 1.0 million of the 1.2 million-unit decline in the industry sales pace compared with a month ago."
Thomas King
Worth noting: Manufacturers slashed EV prices and juiced discounts to soften the hit, averaging $13,161 in incentives per unit, but affordability still stung. Non-EV incentives dipped, too, pushing overall spend down to $2,674 per vehicle, a full point lower as a share of MSRP.
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What they're saying: October's results reflected a notable but expected decline in the new-vehicle sales pace, due almost entirely to sales of electric vehicles, said King.
Why it matters: Even as sales slowed, retailer profit per unit is expected to increase to $2,295, up $97 from a year ago. Lower-margin EVs exited the mix, padding gross even as overall consumer spend slipped 4.2% to $46.1 billion.
But affordability remained the wild card. According to King: "Monthly finance payments reached a record for the month of October at $758."
Longer loans (84-month terms) made up nearly 12% of financed deals.
Interest rates eased slightly to 6.56%, and stronger used vehicle values ($29,446 avg.) gave trade-ins a bit more equity.
Also worth noting: Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power said dealers soon faced a new reality: "October EV market share declined to 5.2% month-to-date, less than half of September's 12.9%."
Tyson Jominy
Plug-in hybrids dipped to 1%, while conventional hybrids climbed to 14.2%—a near record market share.
"Consumers prefer having access to a range of powertrain options," Jominy said. "A singular focus on any one technology … risks repeating past missteps."
Bottom line: Dealers headed into the holiday push facing thin incentives, slower EV demand, and affordability fatigue—but also fatter front-end margins. As King warned, manufacturers needed to decide how aggressively to stimulate demand, which he expected to be "relatively conservative."
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