Total new-vehicle sales, including retail and fleet, are projected to rise 3.6% year over year in June, putting the market on pace to reach 8.25 million units in the first half of 2026, according to a joint JD Power and GlobalData forecast.
The details: June's increase equates to an 8.0% gain from a year ago before adjusting for selling days, though first-half retail sales for 2026 are still expected to decline.
New-vehicle retail sales for June are projected to reach 1,114,700 units, up 2.7% year over year (YoY), or 7.0% without adjusting for selling days.
The retail seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) is expected to reach 13.7 million units, up 0.5 million from June 2025.
First-half retail new-vehicle sales are projected to total 6,420,100 units, down 4.1% from the same period last year.
What they’re saying: “On a full-year basis, the 4.1% decline in retail sales, more than offset by rising sales to fleets, is notable, but not alarming,” said Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at JD Power. “Supply constraints on several of the best-selling vehicles in the market account for most of the decline. That said, macroeconomic uncertainty, higher fuel prices, and persistent affordability challenges present headwinds to new vehicle demand.”
Why it matters: June's sales gains suggest consumer demand remains firm despite ongoing affordability challenges, but the overall decline in first-half retail sales highlights the market's uneven nature.
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Between the lines: Amid the market challenges, automakers are relying more heavily on incentives to sustain demand, with average incentive spending expected to reach $3,217 per vehicle, up 12.7% from a year ago.
Incentives are projected to equal 6.2% of MSRP in June, up 0.6 percentage points YoY.
Average incentive spending on non-EVs is expected to reach $2,970 per vehicle, an 18.6% increase from last year.
EV incentives remain significantly higher, averaging $9,824 per vehicle, up 3.1% YoY.
Bottom line: As affordability pressures and inventory constraints continue to shape the market, incentives are becoming an increasingly important tool for driving showroom traffic, signaling that dealer success will depend on balancing discounting with profitability while aligning inventory with shifting consumer demand.
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