The war against Iran could have a major impact on the U.S. auto industry, with global light-vehicle sales potentially falling by nearly 1 million units in 2026, according to S&P Global Mobility.
The details: The projection marks a shift from the industry insight group’s March 2026 assumptions, which had been more optimistic that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would resume within a couple of weeks and normalize by late March or early April.
S&P Global’s April 2026 draft global light-vehicle sales forecast now calls for a reduction of 800,000 to 900,000 units in 2026 and 500,000 units in 2027.
The revised forecast includes a 200,000-unit reduction in Gulf Cooperation Council sales, with the broader global impact expected to be uneven.
What they’re saying: “Current vehicle inventory appears strong enough to absorb potential production cuts, so the sales reduction forecast is based on economic impact rather than lower production,” wrote Stephanie Brinley, principal automotive analyst with S&P Global Mobility, per the report.
Why it matters: For dealers, the greater risk is not an immediate production disruption but the downstream effects on affordability and shopper demand. Higher fuel, freight, and vehicle costs could make consumers more hesitant, squeeze margins, and create added pressure in an already payment-sensitive market.
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Zooming in: S&P Global attributes the sales disruption to three main factors tied to the Iran conflict: higher oil and fuel prices, supply-chain instability, and growing consumer uncertainty.
Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is raising fuel and freight costs, pushing up landed vehicle prices and inflation, with Brent crude potentially averaging $120 per barrel if closures persist.
Rerouted shipping and rising logistics and war-risk insurance costs are contributing to vehicle and parts shortages, longer wait times, and reduced model availability.
Cost inflation is weighing on consumer sentiment and reducing credit appetite, leading to softer demand amid growing affordability concerns.
“If the situation persists for longer than we’ve presumed, further economic harm, lower availability, higher commodity costs, and reduced manufacturing are possible,” wrote Brinley in the report.
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