Honda and Nissan merger talks, 2025 auto sales forecast looks bright, mobile vehicle service grows

Hey, everyone. The FTC has dealer compliance in its crosshairs. 

Get this — a 10-store dealership group just agreed to pay a historic $20 million settlement to the FTC and Illinois Attorney General’s Fund in connection to an ongoing lawsuit. 

While a settlement isn’t an admission of wrong-doing necessarily — it’s clear the FTC is pursuing claims of deceptive practices intensely with or without the CARS Rule.

—CDG

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Welcome to The Weekly, your go-to roundup of the top five auto industry headlines of the week. Let’s dive in.

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1. New vehicle sales forecasted to surge in 2025 after successful Q4

New vehicle sales are projected to reach 1.47 million units this December, a 7.7% increase from November and slightly above last year’s volume. 

This surge caps off a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter, positioning full-year sales at 15.85 million units — 2.3% higher than 2023 and slightly above Cox Automotive’s original forecast.

Year-end demand is surging, driven by lower interest rates, bigger incentives, and EV buyers rushing to beat a potential tax credit rollback before the administration change.

Looking ahead, Kelley Blue Book anticipates 2025 new car sales to climb 3% year-over-year, hitting 16.3 million units — the highest since 2019 — while used vehicle sales are expected to reach 20.1 million units, the most since 2021.

Bottom line: The auto market is closing 2024 with strong momentum, and early indicators suggest 2025 could mark the industry’s best year in half a decade.

(Go deeper: 3 min. read)

But even though new car supply has roared back this year,  the speed at which used car prices are dropping is much slower than it used to be…

2. Used car price drops slowing down, hovering around $30K

The average price for a one- to five-year-old vehicle now sits at $29,934, just 1.4% lower than last year, according to iSeeCars.

While used EV prices have dropped more dramatically — down 18% year-over-year in November — the pace of decline has also decelerated, a sharp contrast to the 30% plunge seen earlier this year.

By the numbers:

• Average used car prices remain about $10,000 higher than pre-pandemic levels.

• Tesla vehicles saw the largest price drops, down 21.2% year-over-year, while Acura prices rose 2.8%.

What’s next: Buyers searching for deals will find better opportunities with older models. As the market stabilizes, shopping during slower sales periods or major promotional events could help uncover more affordable options.

(Go deeper: 2 min. read)

Is your dealership leveraging AI to improve the finance experience?

Join Upstart’s Keishawn Batts at NADA for a look at how AI-powered financing could help your dealership approve more car buyers to move more metal.

He’ll share how AI makes the financing process faster, simpler and ultimately creates more opportunities to sell more vehicles while increasing profitability.

Another reason used car prices are sticky is due to tighter supply. The same thing is happening in the wholesale market…

3. Wholesale used car prices hold steady so far this month

Wholesale used vehicle prices were unchanged in early December compared to last month, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Index, which also showed a 0.7% year-over-year increase. This continues the trend of slower depreciation seen in the latter half of 2024.

By the numbers:

• The Three-Year-Old Index declined by 0.5%, slightly more than the typical seasonal drop.

• Sales conversion rates hit 59.9%, over 4% higher than November and well above the three-year average of 53%.

• Compact cars and pickups saw price increases of 0.8% and 1.2%, respectively, while EVs rose 3.5%. Luxury vehicles and midsize cars dipped slightly.

Bottom line: With tighter wholesale supply and elevated dealer demand, inventory pressures are mounting. This marks the second consecutive year-over-year gain in the Manheim Index, hinting that wholesale prices may have reached a floor for now.

(Go deeper: 2 min. read)

Elevated prices across the board means that drivers are holding onto their cars longer than ever. Cars that will definitely need service…

4. Mobile vehicle service is key to winning back customers

Many auto dealerships are overlooking mobile vehicle services as a significant revenue driver, according to a new report from Curbee.

Why it matters: Mobile services deliver oil changes and tire rotations right to customers, saving time and freeing up service bays for bigger jobs. It’s a hassle-free way to boost loyalty and win back customers.

By the numbers:

• 92% of customers who hadn’t visited their dealer in over 18 months accepted a mobile service appointment.

• Mobile service appointments average just 55 minutes, making them both convenient and efficient.

• For vehicles over seven years old, all mobile services involved routine maintenance, aligning perfectly with consumer needs.

Bottom line: With U.S. vehicles averaging 12 years old, mobile services are an untapped goldmine for dealerships aiming to boost revenue and customer retention. Forward-thinking dealers investing in mobile service offerings stand to capture a growing segment of the market.

(Go deeper: 3 min. read)

And speaking of trying to win more market share… by now I’m sure you’ve heard the big OEM news of the week…

5. Honda in talks with Nissan over possible merger

Reports suggest Honda and Nissan are drafting a memorandum of understanding to collaborate under a holding company, creating an 8-million-vehicle-a-year automaker if Mitsubishi gets brought in the fold.

Here are the stakes: Both automakers face steep sales declines in China and capacity cuts are underway, with Honda reducing global production by 10% and Nissan slashing 20%.

Together – they’re betting that merging resources, technology, and production could be their best shot at regaining a competitive edge in an EV-driven future.

Bottom line: Automaker consolidation is likely just getting started.

(Go deeper: 2 min. read)

Three opportunities hitting the CDG Job Board right now:

• Ron Marhofer Auto Family: Finance and Insurance Manager (Ohio).

• Numa: Regional Sales Manager (remote).

• Toma: Marketing Director (remote, San Francisco).

Looking to hire? Add your roles today—it’s 100% free

• Mercedes-Benz switching back to regional dealer support.

• Toyota slashes bZ4X price by $6,000 for 2025 model year.

• Stellantis delays 1st all-electric model to focus on Ramcharger EREV.

• Matt Bowers acquires Hyundai/Genesis store in Louisiana, Corwin Auto Group picks up Colorado Honda location.

• EPA approves California waiver to ban gas-powered car sales.

That’s a wrap for now – make sure you’re following along on X, LinkedIn and IG for more real-time updates.

🚨 Hey you! Before you go…

Thanks for reading. Hit reply and let me know if you found this week-in-review valuable or have any feedback. I’ll see you next weekend.

—CDG

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