With rising gas prices, full-size truck sales have slowed, and collectively, inventory has increased across the nation faster than any other segment in the past three months.
Still, that is not the case for all models and markets, as new data from Catalyst IQ points out.
Driving the news: Catalyst IQ, which indexes 99% of VIN inventory marketed to consumers, published its Q3 State of the Industry report, showing an all-time high in marketed price for new vehicles at $52,770.
That’s a $2,118 increase from the end of Q1.
A shift to more expensive vehicles accounted for $952 of the increase, and $99 was from pullbacks in incentives, and increased prices for 117 models between 2026 and new 2027s made up $1,067 of the jump.
“The real interesting part of this one was that we're about a third of the way through the model year changeovers, and OEMs are being much more aggressive with adding price increases,” Rick Wainschel, vice president of analytics, told CDG News. “A lot of that has to do with tariffs, a lot of it has to do with inflation. Those are more permanent and stickier price increases. So this trend that we're seeing is likely to go even higher because the other two-thirds have not become mature yet and will likely follow suit. And if they do follow suit, then those aggressive price increases will pull the average marketed price even higher and do so on a more permanent basis.”
Zooming in: The Catalyst IQ report noted that vehicle movement increased 3.1% year-over-year and turn rate increased in the third quarter to 39%, the third straight period with an increase.
The vehicles moved per day stayed around 37,700 for a second straight quarter.
The average inventory fell to 2.9 million, down slightly from last quarter, but up 1.7% from Q3 2025.
Efficiency among trucks lag: Catalyst IQ noted the full-size truck inventory increased by 29,027 vehicles between Q2 and Q3.
That was more than double heavy-duty trucks (12,288) and triple the influx of luxury mid-size SUVs and XL SUVs.
Additionally, full-size trucks inventory efficiency was in the lower quarter of segments, with an inventory share of 12.5% and a sales share at 10.6% in the third quarter.
The most efficient vehicles in the quarter were small sedans, mid-size sedans, wagons/hatchbacks and mid-size SUVs, signaling the move of consumers to more fuel-efficient vehicles.
“So the fact that segments like small sedans and midsize sedans and smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles are moving more efficiently. I think that just makes sense given where we are,” Wainschel said. “That obviously has really profound implications for retailers who rely on profitable full-size pickup trucks, heavy-duty trucks, bigger SUVs with higher price points and so on.”
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Ram is exception: For the three months leading into October, the Ram 1500 is seeing the opposite of the rest of the truck field, with inventory declining, as outflows are outpacing inflows.
For the Toyota Tundra, GMC Sierra 1500, Ford F-150, and Chevrolet Silverado 1500, inventory is increasing.
The Silverado 1500 has the most inventory surplus.
Eight specific markets are seeing outflows of trucks outpacing inflows: Detroit, Michigan; Akron, Ohio; Fort Lauderdale, Florida; Asheville, North Carolina; West Palm Beach, Florida; Denver, Colorado; Nashville, Tennessee; and Charlotte, North Carolina.
Surprisingly, Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, is seeing the largest increase in truck inventory.
Closer look at mid-size SUVs: The mid-size SUV made up 21.3% of inventory and 24.1% of sales in Q3, holding significant power in the market.
The mid-size SUV had the largest deficit in inventory at 25,384 vehicles.
The Subaru Outback, Jeep Cherokee, and Volkswagen Tiguan had the largest decrease in inventory, while the Toyota RAV4 and Honda CR-V were on the opposite end with inventory increases.
Additionally, the Los Angeles market had the largest drop in inventory of mid-size SUVs, and Fort Lauderdale, Florida, had the biggest gain.
Bottom line: Macroeconomics are impacting the overall automotive market entering the fourth quarter, but as Wainschel noted, dealers need to be aware of what’s going on in their market and move accordingly.
“Stock what people are wanting to buy. Sometimes the dealer has control over that; often they don't,” Wainschel said. “But if they do, go after the ones that are efficiently moving or where that is changing in a segment's favor. Manage that slow end…if things are piling up, that's where you put your discount money, that's where you put your marketing money, make sure that inventory is visible to the right kinds of buyers.”
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