Electric vehicle sales are carrying the new-vehicle market this month, even as most other sales soften, per J.D. Power’s latest new-vehicle sales forecast.
By the numbers: The forecast, which dropped yesterday, revealed that EVs will make up 12.2% of September retail sales, the highest on record.
That’s up 2.6 points from a year ago and equates to a 27.5% increase in EV sales on a selling-day adjusted basis.
As we’ve covered: And as Thomas King, president of J.D. Power’s data and analytics division, reiterated yesterday, the rush is all about timing.
“The biggest driver of September’s strong sales pace is temporarily inflated demand for electric vehicles,” he said. “The federal EV tax credit expires at the end of the month, which is causing many shoppers to accelerate their purchase.”
Thomas King
Why this matters: That surge is enough to lift the overall forecast, even as non-EV retail sales are expected to fall 2.5% from last year.
Case in point, J.D. Power’s forecast said total sales are projected at 1.23M units, basically flat with September 2024 once adjusted for selling days (+0.1%).
Within that, retail is forecast at 1.03 million units, up 0.4% vs last year on a selling-day adjusted basis.
With one extra selling day this year, the raw increase looks stronger at 4.8%.
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On top of that: Yesterday’s forecast also tells us the affordability picture hasn’t changed much.
Average transaction prices are forecast at $45,795, up $1,300 from 2024.
Incentives are sitting at 6.1% of MSRP on average, with just 4.8% for non-EVs.
And monthly payments are expected to hit a record $756, pushing more buyers into 84-month loans, now 11% of finance deals, per J.D. Power.
“Average vehicle prices continue to rise, discounts remain low, and monthly finance payments are at record highs, all of which affect the overall sales pace,” King said.
What we’re watching: The EV credit deadline hasn’t even hit, and automakers are already adjusting. Acura just scrapped the ZDX, Porsche cut 2025 guidance for the fourth time, and others are reworking launch plans altogether.
And for dealers, it’s another reminder to stay nimble, because inventory bets, incentive strategies, and even messaging will likely shift week by week as OEM plans evolve.
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