August new vehicle sales are expected to finish around 1.35 million, according to the new forecast from Cox Automotive.
Driving the news: August sales trailed last year’s robust sales of 1.47 million, which were buoyed by the expiration of the $7,500 Clean Vehicle Credit in September 2025, falling 8.5%.
Sales still remained strong, keeping the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales (SAAR) at 16.3 million, just 200,000 off August 2025.
The pace has remained the same for the past two months.
What they’re saying: “August new-vehicle sales continue to hold up well despite significant economic uncertainty and ongoing trade disputes dominating many news headlines,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive in a press release. “High gas prices, interest rates that are trending higher, and historically low consumer confidence have not discouraged new-vehicle buyers from making a major purchase as much as might be expected.”
Changes in different segments: Subcompact SUV/crossovers led all categories, with a 4% increase to 125,000.
Compact SUV/crossovers had the largest drop in sales, falling approximately 41,000 year-over-year, or 16%, but still maintained a 16.3% share of the market.
The forecast noted a 2.4% growth in truck sales to 195,000 from the 190,441 in August of last year, as inventory picks up in the segment.
“Inventory was an issue for Ford earlier this year, especially F-Series, but that seems to be more stable now. F-Series sales have been relatively steady the last few months, but I do think Ram and General Motors have been able to pick up some volume in the segment,” Chesbrough told CDG News. “The launch of the updated Ram pickup has been a positive for Stellantis.”
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Bottom line: August sales show strength in the market as the end of the third quarter nears and the busy Labor Day weekend.
“I'd say the key takeaway for dealers is to stay focused during these volatile times — don't give up,” Chesbrough said. “Headlines are not great, but the new-vehicle market is holding up. People still need personal transportation, regardless of the economy uncertainty in the headlines. And new-vehicle buyers are likely in a better position than the general consumer."
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