April auto sales forecast, Ford Q1 earnings, Toyota's dominance

Hey everyone. 

Two big things I’m excited to share with you today.

First, the refreshed CDG Jobs Board is now live! I listened to your feedback, and this new interface is now much more functional and easy to use.

Second, I emailed out a newsletter this morning that covers a crucial trend going on right now in the auto industry—auto loan delinquencies. Check it out if you haven’t already.

—CDG

1. April auto sales expected to dip, but full-year forecast stays strong

Big Picture: Auto sales volume is anticipated to decline slightly in April, but remains on a healthy year-end pace, according to a new forecast from Cox Automotive. 

Data deep dive: 

• Sales are anticipated to fall 2.2% year-over-year to 1.34 million units.
  

• The seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), or yearly selling pace, will finish near 15.9 million, an increase over last year.
  

• Market share of compact cars will rise to 7.9% of all new vehicle sales.
  

• Compact crossovers/SUVs will increase their market share to 19.5%.
  

• Full-sized pickup trucks are projected to lose more market share than any other segment in April.

What it means: Despite a small sales drop in April, the industry is still on track to outsell last year’s total. What’s interesting is the changes in sales across vehicle segments. In a year where both new vehicle prices and interest rates are high, affordability is king. Compact cars and crossovers are the most affordable body types, and these two segments are soaring in 2024.

2. Ford Q1 earnings snapshot

Top line: On April 24, Ford Motor Company announced its first-quarter earnings results, topping Wall Street estimates. 

At a glance: In 2022, Ford split its business into three units. Ford Blue handles traditional gas-powered cars, Ford Model e is the company’s EV division, and Ford Pro is the commercial and super duty truck business. 

The standout winner from Q1 was Ford Pro, which helped offset EV losses.

By the numbers: 

• Ford Blue generated $21.8 billion in revenue. Earnings before interest and tax were $905 million, a 66% decrease year-over-year. 

• Ford Model e reported only $100 million in revenue and an adjusted earnings loss of $1.32 billion.

• Ford Pro made $18 billion in revenue with adjusted earnings of $3.01 billion, up 120% from this time last year.

• Ford’s overall revenue increased 3% year-over-year to $42.8 billion.

• Net income was $1.3 billion compared to $1.76 billion this time last year. 

Why it matters: Ford's bet on EVs faces a roadblock, as strong sales haven't translated to profits. Even though Ford’s EV sales jumped 82% to 20,223 units in Q1, many of these sales were heavily discounted or came from leasing deals.

It’s likely part of the reason why the automaker decided to pivot to hybrid vehicles earlier this month. In a press release, Ford announced that it would delay the launch of new EV models produced at its assembly plant in Oakville, Ontario, and instead, focus on offering hybrid powertrains across its entire Ford Blue lineup by 2030.

3. Toyota continues to be the top-selling global car brand

What’s happening: Early this morning, Japan’s Toyota Motor released sales and production numbers for its fiscal (not calendar) year which ended in March. 

Diggin in: Toyota sold a record 11.1 million globally, a 5% increase year-over-year and the first time the automaker cracked the 10 million mark. 

Strong demand in North America, Europe, and India largely contributed to Toyota's uptick. From January to March, Toyota’s North American sales rose by 20% year-over-year to 565,098 units.

Between April 2023 and March 2024, Toyota sold only 116,654 pure battery electric cars. Not entirely surprising, given Toyota only produces a handful of EVs compared to dozens of gas-powered and hybrid cars.

For context, in North America alone, sales of all electrified vehicles (including hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and battery electric vehicles) skyrocketed from January to March. The automaker sold 206,850 of these vehicles, a 74% increase year-over-year and 36.6% of its total sales volume.

Why it matters: Toyota's industry dominance makes it a bellwether of what could come for other automakers in the future. For now, the company is hedging its bets on hybrid vehicles while it slowly tests the waters of the EV market.

Ram reveals new details about the upcoming RHO truck…including its hefty $70,000 price tag.

Compensation for General Motors CEO Mary Barra dropped to 27.8 million.

Nissan, Mazda, BYD unveil new cars at the Beijing Auto Show.

Tesla cuts around 2,700 jobs in Texas and more than 3,300 in California.

According to a new Gallup poll, 44%, of adults say they are either seriously considering or might consider buying an EV in the future, down from 55% in 2023.

We’ve got tons of great jobs hitting the CDG Job Board right now. Here are some standouts for anyone looking for their next move.

• OPENLANE is looking for tons of new talent—they’re hiring market sales managers across the country. In Lexington, Green Bay, and Las Vegas, to name a few.

• If today’s top story on lending was right up your alley, Westlake Financial (largest privately held auto finance company in the U.S.) is looking for a lending advisor.

Looking to hire? Add your roles today—it’s 100% free.

Thanks for reading everyone—see you tomorrow.

— CDG