A Mercury Insurance study surveyed 840 U.S. adults ages 18–29 in June 2026, weighting responses by age and gender to match Census benchmarks, and paired the findings with a decade of federal licensing data (2014–24) to track how young drivers' habits have shifted.
Driving the news: The findings were counterintuitive. Despite having more transportation alternatives than any generation before them, young people are just as likely, if not slightly more likely, to get a driver's license as they were a decade ago.
They're just getting credentialed later, and driving less often when they do.
Steven Cegelka, COO of Ignition Dealer Services, said the trend holds for today's actual teen drivers, too, and may even be more pronounced than in the 18-to-29 group featured in the Mercury survey.
“For a lot of 16-year-olds today, getting a license or a first car doesn't represent the same freedom it did for previous generations,” Cegelka said.
Steven Cegelka
Ignition Dealer Services
He referenced, of course, the ways kids can travel now after growing up with Uber, Lyft, and parents driving them around.
“They already know they can get where they need to go without taking on the cost and responsibility of a car,” Cegelka said.
Other considerations:
Parents are much more involved in a young first-time buyer's decision.
Some teens would rather wait for a nicer car than accept a basic starter vehicle.
"Car ownership feels less urgent, and affordability and convenience carry more weight than simply getting behind the wheel at 16," Cegelka said.
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Why it matters: Cegelka said, "It all is going to boil down to affordability."
GAP claims that used to average around $2,000 have crept closer to $3,500, and sometimes as high as $5,000, per occurrence.
A generation in less of a hurry to get behind the wheel, paired with affordability woes, puts more pressure on dealers to sell those cars.
Cegelka, who's spent 12 years in the warranty and insurance space working with dealerships, administrators, and insurers, said the cost pressure isn't isolated to young drivers.
"If our rates are going to go up, their rates are going to go up because they're dependent on us," Cegelka said, adding that rising insurance and GAP claims are a driver of overall industry cost, not just the teenyboppers.
What dealers can do: Cegelka said the fix is in adjusting how they sell, market, and structure the deal when presenting it.
Lease smart: Cegelka recommends low-mileage lease programs advertised around $299–$399 a month, or lower, as the clearest way to get younger buyers behind the wheel.
He compares the appeal to upgrade cycles in tech: "You always want the newest version of the iPhone that comes out. It's getting to be the same way with cars."
Shift the marketing budget: "Where everything is being pushed towards right now is towards every social media platform," Cegelka said, citing Facebook, TikTok, Instagram, and Twitch as the go-to news sources for younger generations, rather than TV or radio.
Cut the friction: Cegelka used CarMax as an example of how simple the buying process can be.
"Making it easy, taking the agenda... out of it, and just making the car buying process simple and easy and enjoyable" is what will win this generation over,” Cegelka said.
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