For the rest of 2025 dealers expect softer wholesale used-car prices and easier buying. But this year isn’t following the script.
By the numbers: The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (a key barometer for the wholesale market) rose to 205.0 in mid-November—up 1.1% from October and only 0.2% below last year.
Seasonal norms call for a –0.6% decline. Even non-adjusted prices slipped just 0.5%, barely down year over year.
Inside the lanes, depreciation is still relatively muted. MMR for 3-year-olds fell only 1.0%, retention held at 99.1%, and sales conversion climbed to 56.5%.
Clean cars are still drawing money, and retail demand is quietly waking up.
As Jeremy Robb, deputy chief economist at Cox Automotive explained:
“Wholesale depreciation rates were elevated in October… In early November, we’ve observed more moderate trends… our estimates for retail sales show a slightly higher pace of sales… Additionally, new and used loan rates are down about 30 basis points from October levels…”
Wholesale supply sits at 27–28 days, below the typical November average, but Robb said the real pricing pressure comes later:
“I don’t think dealers should expect to pay more right now… But if you are under supplied prior to when the spring selling season starts to hit, then I think you will pay more… the spring bounce could occur earlier in the year.”
Yet, auction veteran George Pero, president and CEO of Mach10 Automotive, added that the market is more predictable than it feels:
“I think that the single most important data point that people would want to pay attention to is that it's time to start understanding what… past history typically dictates future performance. What we're going through right now is truly not anything different than what everybody's experienced… It's just that influencers are different.”
Some segments remain soft enough to offer opportunity, such as compact and mid-sized sedans, he said.
But Pero advised dealers to stay the course on their business plans.
“The data point that I would reflect on is what you've done at this exact same time over the last five years,” he explained. “You could literally take the same narrative we're talking about right now and exchange just three or four words… and it applies.”
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Between the lines: Sales conversion is climbing.
As Robb put it, “The fact that it’s rising while used retail sales have increased tells me that there’s still solid demand from dealers.”
December typically flattens depreciation, and values often rise in early January, and Robb expects an even stronger pull this year.
“Wholesale values do typically stop declining as much and sometimes even rise… Given tax refund expectations, I would expect this pull to be stronger than usual this year,” he said.
Bottom line: Market conditions matter, but execution still decides margin. Pero doesn’t mince words when discussing dealership missteps:
“They don't do their homework. They need to buy cars that they can tell a story about,” he said. “I don't think they should consider what the car is worth today. I think they need to keep in mind, what is that car going to be worth in 30 or 60 days from now? And how do I adjust my bidding accordingly?”
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