Volvo Cars trims sales guidance as EV shift gets bumpy

Volvo Cars has trimmed its 2024 sales forecast, now expecting 7–8% growth, down from the earlier 12–15% target. The company cites three main reasons for the adjustment: rising interest rates, softening demand, and tougher competition in China, Europe, and the U.S.

Why it matters: Volvo’s updated forecast reveals the tough balancing act automakers face, trying to stay profitable while shifting to electric vehicles (EVs). As EV subsidies shrink in Europe and some consumers hesitate to go fully electric, Volvo has opted to keep plug-in hybrids in its lineup.

• The automaker also faces tariffs on Chinese imports in the U.S. and EU. Its global operations are complex since it's majority-owned by China's Geely.

One major bright spot is the EX30, Volvo’s smallest and most affordable EV, starting at $34,950. The compact SUV has gained traction, selling 9,600 units in Sept. It is now Volvo's third-best-selling model. Production of the EX30 will expand to Volvo’s Ghent plant in Belgium in 2025, with a U.S. launch planned for later that year.

Behind the scenes: CEO Jim Rowan, who took over in 2022, has emphasized profitability over volume to weather today’s market turbulence.

• Volvo has adjusted its 100% electric goal for 2030, now aiming for 90–100% of global sales to come from EVs and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) by that time.

• To further protect its supply chain, Volvo has diversified its battery sourcing, reducing reliance on Northvolt.

What’s next: Volvo aims to outperform the premium segment in 2024 by focusing on profitable growth rather than chasing sheer volume. And two key launches—the three-row EX90 SUV and the luxury EM90 minivan—will be central to its strategy. But the path ahead won’t be easy. Volvo expects negative free cash flow this year, reflecting both investment needs and market pressures. As Rowan acknowledged, “Our journey towards 2026 will not be linear.”

The bottom line: Volvo is in a tough spot. It must balance innovation and profit amid global economic challenges. But the EX30’s success has given the company much-needed momentum, positioning it to stay competitive in Europe and make inroads in the U.S. EV market.

Become an automotive insider in just 5 minutes.

Get the weekly email that delivers transparent insights into the car market.

Join 81,000 others now, it's free:

In today's automotive landscape, car buyers invest more time than ever in researching, considering, and comparing options. But for dealers, the challenge lies in pinpointing the audience ready to make a purchase.

Enter Premier by Edmunds.

Premier offers dealers a groundbreaking way to connect with in-market car shoppers precisely when, where, and how they prefer. With over 20 million monthly visits, Edmunds.com is the go-to destination for buyers seeking market insights, expert advice, and budget tools to make informed decisions.

Through Edmunds Premier, dealers gain access to this highly coveted audience. Simply list your new and used inventory on Edmunds, and watch as qualified, in-market traffic flows directly to your vehicle detail pages on your website.

Don't miss out on this opportunity to elevate your dealership's visibility and sales performance. You can sign up for Premier today at Edmunds.com/CDG.