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Tariff jitters push buyers into showrooms, but the surge might be short-lived
On the retail side, new vehicles are expected to reach 1,284,800—a 14.7% increase from a year ago. (2 min. read)
Anna del Villar
April 28, 2025
New vehicle retail sales are expected to rise again in April, continuing a seven-month streak of year-over-year growth.
Driving the news: According to a forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData, overall new car sales are projected to rise 10.5% against April 2024, when adjusted for the number of selling days.
On the retail side, new vehicles are expected to reach 1,284,800—a 14.7% increase from a year ago.
What’s happening: Concern over tariffs and the possibility of rising prices, likely brought new car shoppers into the market early in April, keeping sales strong.
“An extra 83,000 sales in March and 139,000 in April have occurred due to accelerated vehicle purchases,” said Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power.
Yes but, J.D. Power notes the sugar rush has slowed significantly in the back half of April.
“In the first week of April, the sales pace was 28% above normal levels, but by the third week, sales were just 6% above normal,” added King.
That’s because in general, automakers have been reluctant to raise prices and “shoppers are finding deals that are comparable to recent months,” King explained.
In fact, most OEMs have guaranteed to keep their pricing steady and consistent through the summer at a minimum.
It matters because incentive levels are dropping, and transaction prices are going up as a result.
The average incentive spend is tracking at $2,808 per vehicle, down $260 from March, but still $209 higher than a year ago.
The average new-vehicle retail price in April is expected to hit $45,764, up $887 year-over-year and $975 from March.
“Unsurprisingly, given the rush to showrooms, dealers are offering slightly smaller discounts,” said King.
And if we follow the money… the math is favorable for dealers. Total retailer profit per unit (which includes vehicle gross plus finance and insurance income) is expected to be $2,525, similar to April 2024 but up $361 from March.
The big question: How resilient will future retail demand be?
Tariffs won’t hit evenly, and meaningful differences by manufacturer, model, and segment will shape the impact on affordability.
In King’s words: “Given this variation, coupled with the highly competitive nature of the auto industry, it is likely that tariff-related price increases will take several months to fully manifest themselves,” said King.
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