Oct. new car days’ supply mirrors pre-pandemic “norm”

Recent new vehicle inventory levels and sales data indicate that the new car market has returned to some degree of normalcy following a few challenges this year.

First things first: Drawn from an analysis of vAuto Live Market View data – there are several key data points detailing how sales volumes and market days’ supply at the start of Oct. appears to be getting back on track with 2019, the last year that most in the industry would call “normal.”

• Data revealed that a new-vehicle days’ supply of 81 at the start of Oct. is only one day more than the 80 days reported at this same time in Oct. 2019.

• Days’ supply of new vehicles remains below the average 83 days seen in the first six months of the year and is up two days from last month.

• The total U.S. supply of available unsold new vehicles opened Oct. at 2.76 million units — up 25% year-over-year, down 20% from 2019 levels.  

Something else to know: Cox’s analysis spotlights a few notable data findings related to moving vehicle inventory. 

• Spending on incentives increased slightly to 7.3% of the average transaction price ($3,522), up from 7.2% in August and above the 4.8% reported in early Oct., in 2023.  

• For comparison, at this same time in Oct. 2019, incentives were 10.3% of the average transaction price.  

• The average listing price for a new vehicle was $47,823, up just over 2% from a month earlier and up 0.9% compared to last year. 

Yes, but news of new vehicle days’ supply and sales volumes returning to Oct. 2019 levels could help ease some worries (or create new ones) for certain brands.

• For example, Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares made it clear he wants U.S. inventories to drop below 350,000 by the end of the year. 

• Data from Cox Automotive shows that Stellantis is boosting its incentives, helping to move Model Year 2023 vehicles and calming concerns among U.S. dealers. But Tavares has his work cut out for him if he wants to achieve his year-end goal.

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