New vehicle sales are forecasted to surge in March

"March results reflect a continuation of recent trends, with robust consumer demand for new vehicles delivering a sixth consecutive month of retail sales growth," stated J.D. Power's Thomas King. (2 min. read)

Author

Marcus Amick
March 28, 2025

Consumers are expected to spend more money buying new cars this month than any other March on record.

The details: New vehicle sales—including both retail and non-retail transactions—are projected to reach 1,525,200 over 26 selling days in March, a 9.6% increase from March 2024 (which included 27 selling days), according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and GlobalData.

  • The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new vehicle sales is expected to be 16.8 million units, up 1.2 million units from March 2024. 

  • Total new vehicle sales for Q1 2025 are projected to reach 3,860,000 units, a 5.3% increase from Q1 2024 when adjusted for selling days.

Zooming in: The forecast predicts that new vehicle retail sales for March will reach 1,268,200, a 13% surge from March 2024 or 8.9% when comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days.

  • The average new-vehicle retail transaction price in March is projected to reach $44,849, up $637 from March 2024.

  • Average incentive spending per unit in March is expected to reach $3,059, up $235 from March 2024.

  • Retail inventory levels will likely finish the month around 2.2 million units, a 31.3% increase year-over-year and a 3.7% increase from February.

Why it matters: There is a high likelihood of near-term disruption for suppliers, manufacturers, and consumers due to President Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and parts. But a strong increase in retail sales for March and Q1—paired with robust inventory levels—could provide dealers with some degree of cushion as they brace for the impact of tariffs. 

Bottom line: It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly if or when automakers will move to pass on the cost of tariffs to consumers, which could include removing some incentives. However, some are projecting that vehicle prices will rise by summer, which could help explain the uptick in dealership foot traffic along with tax refund season. 

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