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Automakers bet big on humanoid robots, but need lower costs and real use cases to scale
CDG News Alert (1 min. read)
Anna del Villar
May 23, 2025
While the hype around humanoid robots has exploded since ChatGPT's rise, real-world applications remain limited. Still, a new IDTechEx report is forecasting that the market will reach $30 billion by 2035.
For context: Tesla plans to produce 5,000 Optimus robots with potential scaling to 12,000 units, while BYD aims for 1,500 humanoids in 2025 and 20,000 by 2026. Major players like Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Tesla, Xiaomi, and Meta are all diving into the space with significant investments.
Why it matters: The automotive industry is expected to lead humanoid adoption before 2030, driven by their history with automation, large-scale production needs, and established supply chains that overlap with robotics. Currently, these robots are stuck in pilot testing phases doing basic tasks like material handling and inspection, but IDTechEx expects them to tackle specific use cases by 2026-2027 and more complex tasks between 2028-2033.
What we're watching: Cost remains the biggest hurdle. Tesla's Optimus is estimated at $120,000-$150,000 per unit due to expensive components and low production volumes. IDTechEx believes widespread adoption won't happen until prices drop to around $20,000 and robots can efficiently handle goods and basic pick-and-place tasks.
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