A closer look at EV sales: Poised for annual growth despite mixed-picture

A deceleration of sales, stubborn barriers to entry for car buyers, and news of another manufacturer casualty are creating a mixed short-term outlook for the EV market. But confronting any unfamiliar technology has its hurdles and doesn’t necessarily mean widespread adoption is unattainable.  

Take Tesla for example. The company launched its first car, the Roadster, in 2008. But it wasn’t until 2020 that the EV maker became profitable (yes, climate credits played a big part in this) but the point is, it took 12 years of hefty R&D expenses and net losses before it became a global leader in the EV market. 

Driving the news: Data and estimations for 151 markets show that the Tesla Model Y electric SUV outsold all other models to become the world’s best-selling car in 2023. Additionally, EV sales are still growing and are projected to increase 20% year-over-year in 2024.

Yes, it’s true: Automakers like Ford are scaling back their EV plans and Tesla did cut 10% of its global workforce, and sales pace has slowed in the U.S. – not exactly positive indicators for EV growth. Yet, those headlines don’t tell the whole story. 

The standardization of Tesla’s NACS charger is well on its way, with SAE International and most major automakers adopting the technology. There are also optimistic engineering trends in the development of EV batteries.

What’s more: Six of the top 10 EV makers in the U.S. saw meaningful sales growth compared to last year, with increases ranging from 56% at Hyundai-Kia to 86% at Ford.

The reason? “More new products, more incentives, more inventory, more leasing and more infrastructure will drive EV sales higher this year. Even so, we’ll continue to see ups and downs as the industry moves towards electrification,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive.

Looking ahead: While EV sales are growing more slowly than last year, the data suggests that it could be a temporary blip as automakers scale up production and prices slowly creep down. The introduction of a $25,000 new EV could be a game-changer for the industry and the first OEM to market might have a huge advantage. But, the investment in hybrid production could cannibalize EV market share. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the year plays out.

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