3 EV market realities I'm watching (and what they mean for you)

Where do things stand?

Hey, everyone — Recently, a driver pulled out her car’s air filter for a quick look and found a jaw-dropping message: “You are FAT.”

The rude surprise blew up on Reddit, with many saying it was a harmless shop prank and that the message was likely for the next mechanic.

But it got me thinking…could we all be driving around with secret messages under the hood?

—CDG

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You've probably seen the headlines: "Ford is canceling its electric three-row SUV," "EVs are holding GM back," and "EV sales growth stalls" — these are just a few I've come across recently.

But there's more going on in the EV market than meets the eye, and I'm watching these three market realities closely.

1. Used EV price crash.

Used EV prices are dropping much faster than the rest of the pre-owned market. Between 2023 and 2024, used EVs lost a whopping 20.5% of their value—around $8,695—while gas-powered cars only lost about 6.8%, or $2,000, according to Edmunds.

What’s going on? New car prices are falling, and vehicle incentives are going up, which is shifting demand from used cars to new ones and easing the pressure on the used car market. Plus, price cuts from big players like Tesla and Ford are pushing down used EV values even more.

But there’s a floor: Recurrent (an EV battery monitoring tool and research firm) research suggests used EV prices probably won't drop meaningfully below the $20,000 to $25,000 “sweet spot" due to support from the $4,000 government-subsidized used EV tax credit.

Why it matters: Depreciation is a tough pill to swallow for new EV buyers, but it’s a prime opportunity for second-hand shoppers. More deals will likely pop up with the rise in EV leasing, though price volatility could tighten lending terms as lenders struggle to assess future collateral values.

Key takeaway: Many used car dealers and consumers are feasting on used EVs right now due to their relative affordability. However, that could change if auto lenders tighten the belt on usage of the $4,000 government-subsidized used EV tax credit (I’m already hearing murmurs about it)…

2. The charging variable.

The Biden Administration aims for 500,000 public chargers by 2030. But, right now, we have only 192,000 ports at 72,000 EV charging stations  – far short of what the market needs.

  • S&P Global Mobility forecasts a need for 1.2 million EV chargers nationwide by 2027 and almost twice that by 2030 (not including home chargers).

Why it matters: Many dealers say public charging—not cost—is the biggest hurdle to EV adoption.

  • 19% of EV owners reported failed EV charging attempts due to out-of-service stations, long wait times, or damaged equipment. Now imagine one in five gas pumps were out of order…

As Tesla aims to standardize the EV charging network and learns to "shake hands" with every automaker, charging confidence could rise. Remember when Apple ditched the lightning cable for a USB-C? Same idea applies. 

But non-Tesla EV owners are still waiting for Supercharger access months and months after the initial announcements.

Rumor has it that these delays might mean CEO Elon Musk is having second thoughts—opening up access could lure customers away from Tesla.

More hurdles: The slow rollout of the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program (NEVI) is frustrating everyone—only 11 chargers have been installed so far. On top of that, we’ll need 142,000 more EV-certified electricians by 2030, which makes things even more complicated. It’s not just about building the chargers—someone has to maintain them too.

The intrigue: A new digital mapping tool revealed that Los Angeles, a major EV market, has a ton of "charging deserts." If L.A. can’t figure out charging, the rest of the country is probably struggling even more—especially in places with lots of apartments or not much parking.

The kicker: New tech players are constantly boosting battery efficiency and charger speeds, but the public network can only handle so much. The big question is: can today's charging standards keep up with the super-powered EVs of tomorrow, or will we need a complete network overhaul down the line?

Picture this: An EV that charges itself—no plugs, no hassle. As self-driving cars become the norm, plugging in will be a thing of the past. Imagine your EV driving itself to charge whenever it needs to. No more stressing about where, when, or how to charge—your car takes care of everything. This could be the future: your EV, always full, always ready.

Unbelievably powerful, incredibly usable.

Fullpath’s CDP like you’ve never seen it before.

Register now for Fullpath's Q3 live launch as they introduce new features to help dealers take data unification and activation to a whole new level.

September 12 @ 12 PM ET, streaming on LinkedIn, Facebook & Youtube. Save your spot.

3. The hidden costs.

Are EVs as green as they appear? That's up for debate.

What’s happening: A report from the Texas Public Policy Foundation shows the true cost of EVs is more complex. Nearly $22 billion in subsidies in 2021 slashed EV prices by almost $50,000 per vehicle. 

  • But these savings don’t come free—taxpayers and utility ratepayers end up covering hidden costs like grid strain and infrastructure, averaging $11,833 per EV over 10 years.

  • The cost of fueling (including subsidies)? Equivalent to $17.33 per gallon of gasoline.

Zooming out: The environmental benefits of EVs aren’t a sure thing. In states that rely on coal, an EV’s carbon footprint can be just as big as that of a gas car. Plus, mining for materials like lithium, cobalt, and nickel for EV batteries has a big environmental cost. And recycling those batteries isn’t easy either—it often requires energy-intensive processes, like heating parts to super high temperatures.

That’s what I’m thinking about right now as I consider the EV market's uncertain future. What about you?

Subaru ex-CEO: How Tom Doll transformed Subaru into a 'cult brand'
From a niche brand to a worldwide cult following, Tom Doll took Subaru to unbelievable heights during his tenure as CEO. In this episode, Tom, the former President and CEO of Subaru of America sits down for a close look at Subaru’s journey to become one of the U.S.’s biggest automakers and how the brand cultivated its top-notch retail network. Listen here.

Real estate expert: The rising dealership 'sale-leaseback' market
A $30 billion market is hiding under dealerships, and finance expert Mark Pomella knows how to find it. I spoke with Mark, Vice President at SAB Capital, to discuss how private equity values car lots, dealership real estate tax hacks, and how dealers can leverage their property using sale-leasebacks. Stream it here.

Listen to the episodes here, and subscribe to the CDG Podcast on Apple, Spotify, or wherever else you get your podcasts. And thank you to OPENLANE, Cars Commerce, SAB Capital, DLRdmv, and Haig Partners for making these episodes possible.

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Thanks for reading. See you on the next edition…

—Car Dealership Guy

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